USDINR to trade in a range of 61.30-61.75: Karvy

Karvy Stock Broking report on currency:

The Dollar-rupee pair closed on a depreciating  note on Tuesday at 61.30 , shedding 0.08% over the prior day close  taking cues out of a weak domestic indices (NIFTY and SENSEX) which  ended lower by nearly 0.50%.While the European and the US equity  indices ended in the red overnight.From the currency space the Dollar  index ended lower at 79.96 pushing the Euro and the Pound to close  higher on Tuesday

OUTLOOK: Taking cues out of the US equity markets which ended  lower overnight the Asian markets are trading mixed while most of the  markets In the red. Reflecting the same trend is seen in the SGX Nifty  futures which are down by 33 points. This probably could mean a  negative open in the domestic equity markets today .The negative  impact of which could be felt on the Indian rupee when it opens  whereas if we look at the 1 month forward rupee contract it has has  depreciated this morning and now at the 61.54 level ,down by over 20  paisa .While from the international currency front the Dollar index is  up marginally and now at 80.03 up by 0.08% pushing the Euro and the  pound marginally lower by 0.07 and 0.05% respectively .From an  economic releases perspective there are no economic releases form  the domestic markets while we have the CPI mom number to be  released from the German zone while in the evening the US will  release the MBA mortgage applications number. Devoid of any major  economic data today we believe the currency markets could be little  subdued today. 

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

The Dollar-rupee pair closed marginally higher on Tuesday at the 61.30  level , a gain of 0.08%.For the second consecutive day the pair has closed  higher forming a series of higher high’s and higher low’s .Though the  short term trend continues to remain down the pair has been on the  verge of a pullback and an attempt to fill the price gap created on  09/12/2013 could be in the offing .On the daily chart the two consecutive  up days depicted a doji candlestick indicating that even though the prices  traded higher on an intraday basis ,however at close it ended near the  open level of that particular day suggesting indecision. Hence for the day  a sustained above the 61.45-61.55 zone could eventually lead to short  covering in the pair which could propel it to the resistance at 61.75-61.80  zone. The Key technical supports for the day are at 61.30 followed by  61.05 levels.

Overall we expect the pair to trade in a range of 61.30-61.75 levels for the  day and recommend buying on declines.  

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