Motilal Oswal's research report on Ipca Laboratories
IPCA delivered lower-than-expected 1QFY24 financial performance as growth moderated in the international generics, API and institutional antimalaria segments. Domestic formulation (DF) continued to perform well owing to healthy traction in key therapies like pain, cardiovascular, CNS and dermatology. We cut our FY24 earnings estimate by 4% factoring in near-term weakness in API business and a gradual recovery in anti-malaria segment. We value IPCA at 22x 12M forward earnings to arrive at a TP of INR840. IPCA remains well placed to sustain industry-beating growth in the DF segment. We await clarity on recent USFDA inspections at its formulation and API sites. Moreover, Unichem’s site was last inspected in CY20. Thus the USFDA regulatory risk remains high on IPCA/Unichem combined basis. We retain our Neutral rating on the stock as we believe the current valuation richly factors in earnings upside.
Outlook
We cut our FY24 earnings estimate by 4%, factoring in near-term weakness in API business, and a gradual recovery in anti-malaria segment. We value IPCA at 22x 12M forward earnings to arrive at a TP of INR840.
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