Prabhudas Lilladher's research report on Bharti Airtel
We lower our FY23-25E earnings by 15%/23%/2% even as we 1) lower ARPU growth by 3-9%, given delays in pricing action 2) factor increase in mobile subscriber count by 1-3% and 3) higher depreciation charges by 2-5%. Bharti Airtel (BHARTI) reported strong operational results with consolidated EBIDTA/PAT of Rs184.5bn (+4.9%QoQ; PLe Rs178.5bn) and Rs15.8bn (- 26%QoQ; PLe Rs22.5bn), led by strong performance across businesses. PAT had one-time prior period license fee charge of Rs6.7bn. India mobile revenues were up 2.1%QoQ and EBIDTA margins were up 140bps QoQ to 53.8% led by ARPU rise to Rs193 (+1.9%QoQ; PLe Rs196) and 6.4mn high value 4G subscribers (overall addition was 4.5mn). Africa mobile and enterprise revenues were up 3.2%QoQ and 2.4%QoQ, while EBIDTA margins were flat QoQ at 49.1% and 39.9% (+70bps QoQ) respectively. Home services (fixed line + broadband) along with DTH had ARPU decline by 1-3% QoQ.
Outlook
We remain structurally positive on Indian telecom and BHARTI given consolidation in the sector which may lead to regular tariff hikes. Maintain ‘BUY’ at SOTP based PT of Rs1,009 (Rs1,039 earlier) as we increase lease debt, but increase India mobile multiple to 8.5x (7.8x earlier).
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