Buy Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone; target of Rs 360: Dolat Capital

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Dolat Capital's research report on Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone

Q4 results were an operational miss. Revenue declined by ~5% YoY to ` 29.2bn. Lower SEZ income affecting revenues and margins. Adj EBITDA was at ` 16.4Bn, down 15% YoY. Margins came lower at 56.3% vs 62.7% YoY. FY20 margins at 63.7% vs 64.7% YoY. APAT stood at ` 13.4bn, up 14% YoY. PAT was impacted by a ` 10bn forex on the P&L.  The management guidance: (1) Evaluating the situation, No volume guidance for FY21 ; may give one when there is better visibility post lockdown (2) SEZ income to be ` 8-10Bn; (3) Ports margin to range between 68-70% (4) Snowman deal viability under review; (5) Capex guidance for FY21 reduced to ` 20Bn vs ` 40Bn earlier; (6) net debt to equity of 2.9x is within limits while it has a cover for its entire debt servicing of FY21.(7) Promoter pledge to be 0% by next 12-18 months,

Outlook

With April volumes down 25% from normal, we factor in a gradual recovery leading to a 6% volume decline in FY21. This leads to an EPS cut of 19%/11% in FY21/22 vs earlier estimates. Relatively less impacted under COVID, with a 60% sticky cargo as base volume, new ports in its fold, improving utilisation, better volumes on DFC connect to Mundra as some of the triggers for the stock. Given the sharp price correction, we move rating to Buy with a DCF based TP of ` 360. Key risk remains economic slowdown, which impact volumes.

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