Gold shines this Dhanteras with 55% annual return; here’s tracking its 5-year journey

Gold given 55% return since last Dhanteras

Gold’s record-breaking run this festival season has delivered exceptional gains for investors, fuelled by global uncertainty and strong domestic demand. Since last Dhanteras, gold has delivered a staggering 55 percent return, outperforming major equity benchmarks such as the Nifty 50, which has delivered only 3.5 percent.

Seen as a symbol of prosperity and wealth, gold is a must-buy for hundreds of thousands of households during Dhanteras, which will be celebrated on October 18.

“Dhanteras is considered one of the most auspicious occasions for buying gold in India, as it symbolises prosperity and good fortune. Gold continues to be the preferred choice for both consumers and business owners due to its high liquidity and investment value,” said Deveya Gaglani, senior research analyst commodities, Axis Securities.

Gold prices have surged sharply, supported by robust central bank buying, geopolitical tensions and expectations of monetary easing. Gold is currently trading at Rs 1,26,338 per 10 gms on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) and Rs 1, 26,714 in the physical market as per Indian Bullion and Jewellers Association, as on 16th October, 2025.

“On September 17, the US Federal Reserve implemented its first rate cut of the year, lowering rates by 25 basis points. Two more cuts are anticipated by year-end, which is beneficial for gold prices,” Gaglani said.

Lower rates typically weaken the dollar and support higher precious metal prices. Fed rate cuts generally contribute to dollar depreciation, which in turn supports higher demand and prices for gold and silver.

Here is a look at gold’s performance during Dhanteras over the last five years :

After a dip in 2020–21, gold has delivered steady double-digit gains every year, a reflection of its safe-haven status amid global uncertainty.

Jewellery retailers say that despite record prices, sentiment remains upbeat. “Dhanteras has always been an auspicious occasion for buying gold, as families see it as a symbol of prosperity and good fortune. Despite higher prices this year, we believe the sentiment of tradition will continue to drive demand. Gold is not just a purchase; it is an emotion tied to wealth security and family celebrations,” said Piyush Gupta, Director, PP Jewellers.

While sales volumes may dip, value growth remains strong. “We expect volume sales to be around 20 percent lower compared to last year, but in value terms, this translates into a healthy 15–20 percent growth. This shows that gold remains a trusted and meaningful choice, even in times of price fluctuations,” Gupta said.

Analysts expect the bullish trend in gold to continue. Central banks remain key buyers, having added 1,180 tonnes of gold last year, and expected to purchase around 1,000 tonnes in 2025. Rising ETF inflows and rate cut expectations can further support prices.

Gaglani said macroeconomic risks will continue to favour gold. “A hyperinflation scenario due to excessive money printing by central banks, particularly in the US, could devalue major currencies and drive investors toward bullion. If central bank buying continues, we expect gold prices to reach around Rs 1,50,000 per 10 grams by next Dhanteras,” he said.