Gold to glitter this Dhanteras: Prices may rise up to Rs 1.3 lakh, Rs 1.5 lakh likely by 2026, say experts

According to the World Gold Council (WGC), Indian gold ETFs clocked $902 million in net inflows in September 2025, a 285 percent jump over August.

Gold’s stellar rally shows no signs of slowing down. The yellow metal has already surged nearly 50 percent in 2025, and if the gains are measured from 2022, prices are up a massive 140 percent. Experts say the ongoing global economic shifts and monetary policy expectations are keeping the momentum alive with record-high prices likely this Dhanteras.

“With a strong central bank and ETF buying, even at record high prices, and a declining trust in fiat currencies amid upcoming rate cuts, prices will remain on the higher side,” says Vandana Bharti, Head of Commodity Research at SMC Global Securities.

She expects gold to trade between Rs 1,20,000–Rs 1,30,000 per 10 grams this Dhanteras, with a potential target of $4,150–4,250 per ounce. “We may even see Rs 1,50,000 in early 2026,” she adds.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold prices have already surged upto Rs 1,22,284 per 10 grams this week for December contract, reflecting a mix of global and domestic factors. According to Ajit Mishra, SVP -Research at Religare Broking Ltd, “The rally is fueled by global economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. A weaker US dollar has made gold more affordable for investors holding other currencies, further supporting demand.”

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Another key driver is the continued accumulation of gold by central banks around the world. As countries diversify their reserves away from the US dollar, official purchases of gold have hit multi-decade highs. Meanwhile, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are seeing renewed inflows as investors look for safety amid volatile equity markets and bond yields.

According to the World Gold Council (WGC), Indian gold ETFs clocked $902 million in net inflows in September 2025, a 285 percent jump over August. India ranked fourth globally, behind the US, the UK, and Switzerland, contributing significantly to the world’s $17.3 billion inflows.

Similarly, as per data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI), after small outflows in March and April 2025, inflows have surged sharply, peaking at Rs 8,363 crore in September against Rs 2,190 crore in August, registering a surge of 282 percent. The total AUM of gold ETFs now exceeds Rs 90,000 crore.

Renisha Chainani, Head of Research, Augmont, says, "Gold could potentially touch Rs 1.5 lakh per 10 grams between mid to late 2026 if current macro trends persist. The rally will likely be driven by continued central bank accumulation, persistent geopolitical tensions, and weakening global growth leading to rate cuts by major central banks."

A softer U.S. dollar and sustained inflationary pressures would further boost investor demand for safe-haven assets. In India, seasonal and wedding-related demand, coupled with a weaker rupee and high import duties, will amplify local price momentum. The long-term structural shift toward gold-backed investment instruments will also support the uptrend, adds Chainani.

Will gold crossthe  Rs 1.5 lakh mark this Dhanteras? 

However, while optimism around gold remains strong, experts caution against expecting an immediate breach of the Rs 1.5 lakh mark this festive season.

"Persistent inflation concerns are prompting investors to view gold as a reliable store of value. However, unless there is a major shock such as a currency crisis or severe geopolitical escalation, gold is unlikely to breach Rs 1,50,000 this Dhanteras,” Mishra says. He pegs a more realistic near-term range at Rs 1,26,000–Rs 1,28,000 per 10 grams.

Looking ahead, analysts expect gold’s upward trajectory to continue well into 2026, especially if global interest rates begin to fall and inflation remains sticky. Central bank policies, geopolitical risks, and currency movements will remain the key determinants of where gold heads next.

For investors, this Dhanteras could mark another milestone in gold’s long-term story, not just as a festive purchase, but as a hedge against uncertainty and a testament to enduring trust in real assets amid global financial flux.