Patna meeting crucial for opposition’s 2024 plan

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On October 27, 2013, Narendra Modi kicked off his first Lok Sabha election rally from Patna’s Gandhi Maidan. The campaign eventually scripted history as the Bharatiya Janata Party won a majority on its own in the national elections the following year and Modi took over as the Prime Minister.

Almost 10 years later, the city is back in the national political spotlight as India’s key opposition parties assemble there to brainstorm on a common strategy to take on the BJP. On June 23, Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar is set to host opposition leaders from more than a dozen political parties, including the Congress, the largest of them.

Opposition leaders from Bihar and political experts said the key agenda of the meeting is to project the unity of some of the main opposition parties in their fight against the BJP ahead of the national elections, which are due by next year.

The leaders could take up the contentious issue of how to collaborate in states where there would be a direct contest between the Congress and a regional opposition party such as the Trinamool Congress (TMC) in West Bengal and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Delhi and Punjab.

Meeting agenda

“The main agenda is how to strike alliances in different states effectively to take on the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections,” a senior Congress leader from Bihar said, requesting anonymity. “We expect a broad-based discussion on what kind of seat sharing could take place. This will not be a specific or granular discussion but yes, seat-sharing talks are on the table.”

Top leaders of Congress allies including Kumar’s Janata Dal (United), Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) are likely to attend the meeting. Leaders from the TMC, AAP, the Left Parties, National Conference and Samajwadi Party (SP) could also be present.

“I see this as a Congress+Third Front meeting that will put to test whether anti-BJP can become a political pole in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections or not. It is extremely significant because it could see attendance from the topmost leaders of different parties going to Patna to engage,” Manisha Priyam, a New Delhi-based political analyst, told Moneycontrol.

The opposition parties could consider ‘pro-people’ issues to be taken up by the joint platform, including social and policy matters under the BJP, a senior JDU leader said.

This is the “first of more” meetings, the Congress leader said, adding that it will lay the basis for how the discussions will move over the next few months.

Opposition states

States, where the Congress and a regional opposition party would be in a contest, could continue to be the key bone of contention.

“What remains to be seen is what strategy is adopted for more sticky issues like states where two opposition parties are against each other. We do not know to what extent that issue will be ironed out,” the JDU leader added.

In West Bengal, the TMC led by chief minister Mamata Banerjee finds the Congress as one of its key challengers. In Delhi, the Congress positions itself staunchly against chief minister Arvind Kejriwal of AAP, which ended its 15-year rule in 2013.

“The problem will come from states where the Congress and regional parties are opposed to each other like in West Bengal, Delhi and Telangana. Opposition will need a well-defined strategy to tackle issues emerging in such states,” Priyam said.

Nitish Kumar’s role

Kumar has had a blow-hot-blow-cold political relationship with the BJP. Kumar’s JDU won the Bihar election of 2020 in alliance with the BJP but two years later, he exited the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and joined hands with the RJD and the Congress to form the government.

He has walked out once earlier from the NDA and once from the mahagatbandhan in Bihar. However, he has retained the top post in the state for about 18 years, barring a one-year stint of Jitan Ram Manjhi.

Over the past few months, however, Kumar has taken the lead in crisscrossing the states to meet top opposition leaders in a bid to bring them onboard for a common anti-BJP forum. Kumar was often accompanied with his deputy and RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav.

This included Kumar’s meeting with Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge and top leader Rahul Gandhi in Delhi, with Kejriwal in the national capital, Banerjee in Kolkata, SP chief Akhilesh Yadav in Lucknow and Odisha chief minister Naveen Patnaik in Bhubaneshwar.

“His intention is to develop a clear-cut platform for anti-BJP politicking, similar to the way in which he has done it for Congress in the past. He realises the importance of political allies in doing this,” Priyam added.