Haryana Assembly Election: How the split in INLD will bolster BJP in the Jat-dominated state

File Pic: Om Prakash Chautala

The Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), a party founded by former deputy prime minister Devi Lal, split in 2018 after a bitter power struggle between his two grandsons – Ajay and Abhay Chautala, the two sons of party president Om Prakash Chautala.

The feud saw Ajay Chautala and his sons Dushyant and Digvijay being expelled from the Haryana-based party by senior Chautala, who threw his weight behind the younger son Abhay. The trigger for the split was when the supporters of the young Chautalas hooted at their uncle Abhay at a rally in Gohana in October 2018.

Dushyant Chautala, who is the MP from Hisar, launched Jannayak Janata Party (JJP) in December 2018. The 30-year-old's supporters are now projecting him as the next chief minister.

The split in the party came at a time when it was gearing to come back to power after a 14-year hiatus. The development is likely to hit the party’s chances.

INLD collapse

84-year-old Om Prakash Chauatala is expected to be back on the campaign trail after being granted parole. He, along with his elder son Ajay, was lodged in Tihar Jail in New Delhi in connection with the recruitment scam.

The INLD has also tied up with the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), which will contest on three Haryana seats bordering Punjab.

Once a formidable force in Haryana, the party is now struggling to survive. Five years ago, INLD had emerged as the second-largest party in the state with 19 seats. Then, a rebellion within the party caused 17 MLAs to switch over to BJP, resulting in INLD losing the tag of the main Opposition party.

In addition, its vote share in the Lok Sabha polls has plummeted from 24 percent in 2014 to a meagre 1.8 percent in 2019.

JJP testing waters

The split in the INLD and the formation of the JJP is expected to divide the Jat vote across these two parties in around 30 seats in the state’s heartland, further diluting the community’s influence.

Stronger BJP

The BJP, which has played the role of a junior partner to the INLD for many years, now enjoys a strong footing of its own in Haryana, courtesy the Modi wave.

In 2014, after the Modi government came to power at the Centre with an overwhelming majority, the BJP – buoyed by its performance in the Lok Sabha elections and riding on Modi’s popularity – was able to form the government in Haryana on its own for the first time.

This was in stark contrast to 2009, when the BJP had won only four seats in the 90-member assembly. The BJP’s vote share also increased significantly from 9 percent in 2009 to 33.3 percent in 2014.

The collapse of the INLD is only going to bolster the BJP’s prospects. After the split in the party, the BJP’s vote share increased from 34.8 percent in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections to 58.2 percent in 2019 – a staggering rise of over 24 percent.

In the 2014 Haryana Assembly election, more than four out of ten Jats (42%) had voted for the INLD. However, in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the community, seeking an alternative to a split INLD, sided with the BJP. More than half Jat voters – 52 percent – chose the saffron party.

The JJP, which saw its first election, in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, got a voteshare of only 5 percent.

Besides, experts have suggested that this time the BJP is even set to make gains in the Jat-dominated western Haryana, largely due to a weakening Jat- Non Jat binary.

It remains to be seen if the community’s shift towards the party is stable or transient – driven by PM Modi’s popularity, BJP’s pronounced nationalism pitch and an extremely fragmented Opposition.

Another noteworthy parameter is the cornucopia of regional parties, which are bound to queer the pitch by splitting votes. These include Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), rebel BJP leader Raj Kumar Saini’s Loktantra Suraksha Party (LSP) and Yogender Yadav’s Swaraj India Party (SIP).