Gujarat Elections | Why BJP has trained its sights on a less feisty Congress?

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The sustained attacks on the Congress by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and top Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leaders during the campaign in Gujarat may make one wonder whether the Congress poses a serious challenge to the ruling party’s bid to win the assembly polls for the seventh time.

It also points to an assessment that the BJP won't take the decline of the Congress for granted in the poll-bound state or elsewhere because it does not wish any other party, like the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), to fill the space left vacant by the Congress.

In fact, Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah, and other leaders have made it a point to raise all issues — ranging from appeasement of minorities to being soft on terrorism, corruption during the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA)’s era, and be critical of Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s approach to numerous issues.

That brings us to the question: does Modi, or the BJP, think that the Congress can still spring a surprise even if it looks less feisty by its new ‘silent campaign’? Can it upset the BJP’s prospects in many constituencies? Or, is it because the Congress has showed that it can garner close to 40 percent of the total votes?

A Shock Wave

In 2017, Gandhi led the Congress in a feisty campaign sending shock waves in the BJP. The Congress won 77 seats and 41.44 percent votes in a close contest with the BJP. The BJP's tally came down to 99 though it secured 49.05 percent.

The BJP's number rose from 99 seats it had won in 2017 to the current 111 due to victories in by-elections, mainly necessitated due to resignations by MLAs of the Congress, which has come down to 60 MLAs in the outgoing House.

In 2017, the Congress benefited from the Patidar agitation for reservation in jobs and educational institutions, which turned violent and led to the BJP losing favour with an influential electoral base.

Also, this time, the Congress is bereft of able leaders such as late Ahmed Patel. It is also deprived of a robust campaign by the Gandhi family — mainly because Rahul Gandhi chose to keep away for good measure in the belief that the BJP won't get an opportunity to take advantage of his presence to turn it into a yet another Rahul Gandhi versus Modi bout — a narrative of which always suits the BJP.

Focus On Congress, Ignore AAP

The BJP's assessment is that AAP, despite all its candidates losing their deposits in 2017, may have entered the arena in a big way to take advantage of the decline of the Congress. It is perhaps to prevent this that the BJP is trying to gain from the opposition vote being split — and in the process win back the seats it lost to the Congress in 2017.

If AAP further reduces the Congress’ political relevance in the non-BJP space, the saffron party must strive to benefit — and not AAP — by winning the confidence of those voters who preferred the Congress in earlier elections. BJP strategists are of the view that if the party succeeds in its mission, it could win a record number of seats this time.

At every rally, Modi warns the people of Gujarat to be wary of wasting their vote on the Congress because of the ‘inherent dangers’ in voting for a party that was ‘never’ for development. He also adds that AAP cannot be trusted because it is not for ‘real development’, and will wreck the ‘Gujarat model’ of development now in place.

AAP and its leader Arvind Kejriwal are not referred to by Modi during his speeches in the same manner as the Congress. In fact, Shah and other BJP leaders dismiss AAP's presence of no great consequence, saying a third force can never be endorsed by the people. They point to such attempts made by Chimanbhai Patel, Keshubhai Patel, and Shankersinh Vaghela who led their own parties against the Congress and the BJP at various times with little success. “Gujarat has always been a two-party fight”, said Shah in an interview.

Overcoming KHAM

Modi desires that the BJP strive to erase the memories of 2017 by winning a record that matches the Congress’ tally of 149 of the 182 seats in the Gujarat assembly in 1985. The BJP recorded its highest tally – 127 – and highest vote share of 49.85 percent in 2002, the first election fought under Modi.

Of course, since then, Gujarat’s politics has undergone several changes, particularly after 2001 when Modi became Chief Minister and the state witnessed horrible riots of 2002 which left a deep divide among the Hindus and the Muslims.

Modi worked on what he called the ‘Gujarat model’ of governance even as the BJP worked on the lacuna of Congress’ social-political alliance of KHAM (representing the communities of Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi and Muslim) as it had excluded the Patidars or Patels, whom the BJP began to woo. Subsequently, the BJP rode to power on the support of this community, which is spread across the state. The BJP won the assembly elections of 1995, 1998, 2002, 2007, 2012, and 2017.

A Weaker Congress

In 2017, Rahul Gandhi spent three days each in four regions of Gujarat, and addressed each region according to the issues they faced. The Congress got a boost with Hardik Patel (a Patidar), Alpesh Thakor (an OBC), and Jignesh Mevani (a Dalit), joining hands on a common platform. They spoke on issues of increasing unemployment because of jobless growth, expensive education, deteriorating health infrastructure, crony capitalism, shrinking land for agriculture, and usurping lands of tribals.

In stark contrast, this year the Congress’ electioneering is low profile, prompting Modi to warn his partymen about a ‘silent campaign’. Veteran leader and Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot, who is handling Gujarat for the Congress, is fighting his own battle, trying to ward off challenge from Sachin Pilot in his state. His trusted lieutenant Raghu Sharma is the AICC in-charge of the state, and leaders from Rajasthan have been pressed into service in every constituency.

No doubt, the Congress is on a soft push, wooing voters on bringing back the old pension scheme, free hospital care for accident victims, free medicines, and insurance cover. Congress leaders claim that they have been busy engaging with the people at a door-to-door campaign, and holding localised meetings rather than big rallies.

If in 2017, the BJP had to sweat it out to win because it lost support of the Patel community, this time the party is confident of its support. Hardik Patel, the face of the Patel agitation during the 2017 elections, has left the Congress, and is contesting as a BJP candidate.

Similarly, Thakor is also contesting as a BJP candidate.

The BJP has struck the right political equations, but is not taking the contest lightly, and that’s one of the reasons by BJP leaders are sharpening their attacks on the Congress.