Delhi Election: It's AAP vs BJP in the national capital; can Congress pull off a surprise?

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Delhi is set to witness a battle royale as the Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Indian National Congress, among others, lock horns for control of the national capital.

The national capital will head for polling on February 8 (Saturday), to elect a new Legislative Assembly. This will be Delhi’s seventh Assembly. Tenure of the current Delhi Assembly ends on February 22.

Following the single-phase voting, counting of votes will happen on February 11 (Tuesday).

Quick facts

According to the draft election roll, Delhi has over 1.4 crore eligible voters. Out of these, 11,556 are service voters.

The number of polling stations that will be used by voters across the state is 13,750. This number is 16.8 percent higher than last time.

As many as 12 seats have been reserved for Scheduled Castes (SCs). No seat has been reserved for Scheduled Tribes (STs).

The Photo Voter Slip will also contain a QR code to help in identification and faster polling using the booth app. Voters for the first time can also download the digital photo voter slip from the ‘Voter Helpline’ app available from Google Play Store and Apple App Store.

Also read: All you need to know about the Delhi polls

Trivia

Smallest constituency (by electorate size): Chandni Chowk

Largest constituency (by electorate size): Matiala

Total candidates across 70 constituencies: 672 (79 female and 593 male)

The polls are being contested by six recognised national political parties and one recognised state party. Besides these, there are 243 other recognised parties and 148 Independents.

Lowdown on the political situation

Kejriwal’s AAP is hoping to not only retain power, but also improve its tally from last time. In 2015, AAP had won a whopping 67 out of the 70 Assembly seats. They are determined to win over voters from the remaining three constituencies.

The party is confident that it was able to deliver on key promises it made in 2015. It has claimed that improvement in the quality of education, better healthcare services and uninterrupted and cheap electricity and water supply in Delhi will be enough for it to secure a very popular mandate.

Opinion polls suggest that the AAP government’s initiatives such as Mohalla Clinics and other sops have been received favourably by voters.

Also read | 80% respondents feel healthcare more accessible now; 61% prefer sending kids to govt school: Survey

AAP is being challenged by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) which had won the remaining three seats last time. While Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah have been leading the BJP at the Centre, the saffron party has an array of local leaders such as Member of Parliament (MP) Manoj Tiwari and former Union minister Vijay Goel — leading the charge.

BJP’s campaign is also being propelled by its celebrity campaigners such as cricketer-turned-politician Gautam Gambhir and a number of MPs.

This election is also being seen as the first test for Jagat Prakash Nadda as the BJP National President. Despite having just a few MLAs in Delhi, the party maintain an attacking posture against the AAP government for the last five years over local and national issues. Since the 2019 Lok Sabha election, BJP has also steadily raised the nationalism pitch.

The Indian National Congress, which had governed Delhi for 15 consecutive years between 1998 and 2013, failed to win a single seat in 2015. In 2013, it had won eight. Now, under the leadership of Subhash Chopra, Congress is hoping for change in its fortunes.

The Congress is drawing hope from the fact that it had a better vote share than AAP in the 2019 general election (in Delhi) — even as BJP won all seven parliamentary seats. However, it is to be noted that Assembly elections in Haryana, Maharashtra and Jharkhand in late 2019 showed that people are voting differently at central and state levels.

Factors that may impact the polls

CAA protests: Although protests against the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) have been happening across the country, Delhi has garnered special attention on two accounts – the protests in Jamia Millia Islamia University (JMI) and Shaheen Bagh.

From a political perspective, the BJP has claimed that AAP and its supporters are fomenting tension on the ground and misleading people over CAA. However, AAP has condemned the violence and claimed to have spoken to the Ministry of Home Affairs on alleged excesses by the Delhi Police, which falls under the Centre’s purview.

Onion prices: Prices of onion sky-rocketed in the last few months because of shortage in of the crop after a delayed and erratic monsoon.

Onion prices have had the power to dethrone governments, and hence was used as fodder by AAP against the saffron party. Kejriwal alleged that the Centre was not giving onion at a controlled price to Delhi, while BJP alleged that the AAP government cancelled an order of four truckloads of daily onion supply to the capital.

Remember, high onion prices were seen as one of the key reasons BJP lost the 1998 Delhi election. It was the last time it held power in the national capital.

Toxic air: Every year, Delhi witnesses bouts of toxic air quality days post-Diwali with the Air Quality Index (AQI) crossing 500 in certain areas. In what might seem like a natural phenomenon pronounced by cold and most air with slow wind speeds, air pollution was heavily politicised by both AAP and BJP.

This election, both parties have promised better air quality in their poll promises.

Also read: Key factors that will impact the capital contest

Opinion polls

Most opinion polls conducted in January have placed AAP comfortably ahead. There are other polls conducted by IANS-Neta App and Lokniti that highlight why Kejriwal’s government is popular.

However, the same opinion polls have shown that BJP’s tally could improve significantly as compared to 2015. As we approach the voting day, BJP leaders are expressing confidence that they will be able to close the gap.

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