Can RJD–Congress dent JD(U)–BJP’s hold on the Luv–Kush axis?

Breaking Nitish Kumar's hold won't be an easy task

The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress are banking on a renewed push among Luv–Kush (Kurmi–Koeri) voters and a broader social coalition to challenge the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Bihar. But a Moneycontrol analysis of constituency-level data over the last three elections shows that breaking through the JD(U)–BJP strongholds may prove harder than expected.

Parallel gains, not vote shifts

Across 16 constituencies where the RJD–Congress combine improved its vote share between 2019 and 2024, the NDA’s two main parties — JD(U) and BJP — also registered notable gains, suggesting that both alliances grew largely at the expense of smaller parties and independents, rather than by taking votes from each other.

In three key constituencies, the NDA’s gains directly mirrored RJD’s losses, whereas the opposition could claim similar success in only two. The data underscores that while the Mahagathbandhan has consolidated parts of its core vote, the NDA has maintained a parallel consolidation of its own.

SC Seats: NDA Still Dominant

The pattern is echoed in Scheduled Caste (SC)–reserved constituencies. Of 17 SC seats reviewed, the NDA’s vote share rose in 16 compared with 2020 — often by double digits in constituencies such as Sonbarsha (74) and Dhauriya (160).

In Dhauriya, JD(U)’s vote share climbed from 42 percent to 54 percent, while RJD’s fell. Even in seats where the opposition improved its performance — such as Mohania (204) and Chenari (207) — the NDA also posted gains, effectively neutralising any advantage.

The road ahead

The BJP and JD(U) have strengthened their grip not only in traditional upper-caste and OBC bastions, but also in seats where the opposition tried to make inroads.

The RJD–Congress combine’s incremental gains — especially in women-heavy constituencies — have yet to translate into decisive leads in NDA-held regions.

For the opposition, the challenge is clear: unless the RJD–Congress front can fracture JD(U)’s Luv–Kush base or peel away BJP’s EBC support, the NDA’s structural advantage may persist.

For now, the battlefield looks more like mutual consolidation than a direct swing — a contest where both sides grow, but neither gains ground.