Despite political murmurs, why Nitish Kumar remains indispensable to BJP's mission Bihar

Nitish Kumar

In the lead-up to Bihar assembly polls, chief minister Nitish Kumar's role as the face of National Democratic Alliance (NDA) was being increasingly questioned. The talks regarding his health and his public overtures came under intense scrutiny.

The many high-profile murders that rocked the state and reports of collapse of key public infrastructures made it extremely difficult for Kumar to cling on to his image of 'sushashan babu'. Kumar, who represented the 'new face of Bihar' had actively undertaken state-led development and welfare measures aimed towards a particular segment of electorate -- namely women, managing to shrug off Bihar's image of a state gripped by routine law and order issue. Multiple ground reports hint that Nitish Kumar is still the X-factor that will have a determining role in tipping the electoral outcome in BJP's favour.

Why Nitish has the edge

Kumar's political strength rests on a carefully cultivated vote bloc comprising Kurmi-Koeri communities (7%), Hindu Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs, at 26%) Mahadalits, and Womenfolk. These constituencies have remained largely loyal to him through various political upheavals, drawn by his relatively clean image and development-focused governance. His governance model has been distinctly welfare-oriented, particularly focusing on women's empowerment and marginalised communities. His flagship schemes like Jeevika Didi, cycle distribution for school girls, and the controversial prohibition policy have become defining features of his political legacy.

The BJP is placing a bet on him purely based on the positive changes resulting from his targeted welfare schemes. Kumar is banking on crossing the 50-seat mark by leveraging his welfare schemes and capitalising on what he perceives as the opposition's strategic error of focusing on issues like SIR and "Vote Chori" rather than unemployment and corruption. For the NDA to secure victory, political observers agree that Nitish must win at least 50 seats.

The economics of Nitish's state-led development

In what many consider his last innings, Nitish has opened the budget purse wide, launching a slew of schemes targeting women, youth, senior citizens, farmers, and laborers - five key cohorts in any election cycle. He has increased pension for senior citizens and widows, increased salaries of Anganwadi workers, safai karmacharis, given Rs. 5,000 to 16 lakh laborers and Rs. 10,000 to 1.21 crore women as seed capital to start business, and an unemployment allowance of Rs. 1,000 for youth.

The reading on the wall

Halfway into the campaign, Kumar's principal challenger Tejashwi was goading voters by claiming that BJP will not repeat Nitish as CM if NDA retains power. But, going my comments of NDA leaders, the leadership is clear that there is no vacancy for the CM's post and other allies like Chirag Paswan and Jitan Ram Manjhi endorsing his leadership. During the early rounds of seat-sharing arrangement, there were intense speculation on his role in spearheading the NDA's campaign. But as the talks solidified and NDA's two main constituents -- BJP and JD(U)a agreeing to contest polls on 101 seats each.