Assembly elections in 2023 are no quarter-final or semi-final before the 2024 Lok Sabha polls

For the Congress to have even a fighting chance, it needs to win seats where it is locked in a direct contest with the BJP.

There is a sense of déjà vu to many of the political conversations these days. In what is very much a repeat of the events from 2018, discussions are being framed on how the Karnataka election is the “quarter-final” (followed by the year-end “semi-final” in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Telangana) preceding the Lok Sabha elections of 2024. And why opposition unity is the only antidote to the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

Congress’s 2019 Collapse

Public memory is indeed short. Or we would think twice before getting into this bandwagon now. Let’s rewind to 2018. A rejuvenated Congress which ran the BJP close in Gujarat and had a freshly-minted president in Rahul Gandhi formed a government with the Janata Dal (Secular) in Karnataka, thus staving off the BJP. Then it was back in power after sitting out three terms in Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, also going on to win in Rajasthan.

It had seemed that the Congress would form the government backed by like-minded parties, come 2019. A wary BJP came up with the 10 percent reservation for the Economically Weaker Sections (EWS) in January 2019, and later came the Pulwama attack that killed 40 Indian Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) personnel and the Balakot strikes. These events changed the entire complexion of the election. Although many people attribute the BJP’s win in 2019 to these events alone, the numbers tell a different story.

The fact that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) polled over 50 percent votes in 15 out of the 28 states meant that the election was totally a one-sided affair, especially in the Hindi heartland. These 15 states included Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh where the Congress had trumped the BJP in the so-called “semi-finals”. And the Congress couldn’t do much better than its tally in 2014, winning 50 percent of its seats from Kerala and Tamil Nadu.

Forget Opposition Unity

Opposition unity is the other talking point these days. Once again, this was something repeated ad nauseam during the run-up to the Lok Sabha elections in 2019. Now, opposition unity can be meaningful only if it leads to seat adjustments. Many people suggest that state-wise alliances are the way to go. However, people vote differently in state and Lok Sabha elections.

Sample this: BJP polled nearly 70 percent in the Lok Sabha elections in Himachal Pradesh (with Congress down to 27 percent), while that number came down to 43 percent in the assembly elections – the Congress winning with 44 percent votes in a tight contest.

And alliances are tricky in another way as regional parties with an upper hand in assembly elections may not want to yield to a weakened Congress which still has more leverage in a Lok Sabha election. As for the Congress, it is still harping on alliances only to get regional parties to accept Rahul Gandhi’s leadership.

Hindi Heartland Will Decide

The 2024 election will actually be determined in the Hindi heartland. The only way to unseat Narendra Modi would be for the Congress to maximise its seats from the Hindi belt, in which case fair-weather allies would make a beeline to it.

For the Congress to have even a fighting chance, it needs to win seats where it is locked in a direct contest with the BJP. And Congress will need to win at least 100 additional seats, probably more, since allies will come on board only then.

Let’s rewind to the 1998 and the 1999 Lok Sabha elections when Vajpayee-led BJP had 182 seats. In 1996, it failed to form a government with 161 seats.

And There’s Uttar Pradesh

Then there is the question of Uttar Pradesh (UP). It is conventional wisdom that the route to power in New Delhi is through Lucknow. No wonder Narendra Modi himself contested from Varanasi to maximise the BJP’s seat tally in UP. For the Congress and the Gandhis, it is their adopted state with family pocket boroughs and it would have to find a way to claw its way back to acceptance in UP.

The trouble for the Congress is that it doesn’t have any particular segment voting for it apart from Muslims, and it would have to do something really out-of-the-box to change this equation.

There was news of Rahul Gandhi following up the ‘Bharat Jodo Yatra’ with a Porbandar to Assam foot march. He would do better to walk through UP since that could have some positive impact on the moribund Congress organisation in the state.

A New Charter

So, the million dollar question is, what can Rahul Gandhi offer to the people of UP? The Nyuntam Aay Yojana (NYAY) or the minimum income support program with a guaranteed cash transfer of Rs 72,000 would be a good gambit, provided Gandhi can communicate it effectively with the voters.

The Congress had announced it on the eve of the 2019 election itself, but Gandhi couldn’t convince the public on its feasibility. The credibility earned with the Bharat Jodo Yatra might come handy in taking it to the people this time around.

And unlike then, national security may not override people’s voting choices, although BJP’s push on infrastructure projects and Ayodhya may be enticing to a large section of voters.

In conclusion, Congress would do well to junk all the talk of a “quarter-final” in Karnataka and “semi-finals” leading up to 2024 and debates around opposition unity – it will need to do all the heavy lifting on its own for another shot at power.

Anand Kochukudy is a Kerala-based journalist and columnist. Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.