Why there’s no immediate threat to the floundering Rishi Sunak premiership despite Conservative disarray

UK PM Rishi Sunak.

The completion of a year in office by Rishi Sunak, the first Indian-origin Hindu Prime Minister of United Kingdom, was just a blip on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government’s radar and not a momentous occasion marked by congratulatory and adulatory messaging from New Delhi. This is especially because the UK-India free trade deal that India was keenly pursuing is today just like a car stuck in a rut whose wheels keep spinning.

Importantly, Sunak too did not celebrate his first anniversary in office, which fell on October 25, clinking champagne glasses. Downing Street released the premier’s photograph sitting workmanlike at his desk with a slice of cake and a mug of coffee, deeply engrossed in what clearly looked like preparations to field tough questions from Labour Party leader, Sir Keir Starmer, in Parliament later in the day.

Unlike India, where the PM can give the Parliament a miss for days, weeks and months and the opposition can’t do a thing about it except rave and rant, there is a constitutional convention firmly in place in UK called Prime Minister’s Questions, which compels the leader of the house to answer questions from MPs every Wednesday noon when the House of Commons is in session, whether he likes it or not. Not for nothing is Britain called the “mother of democracy” although it doesn’t even have a written Constitution.

PM For Now, But Fall Guy Soon?

Sunak’s first 12 months in charge, in a manner of speaking, has brought the UK a year closer to the end of uninterrupted Conservative rule since 2010. A Labour victory in the next elections, scheduled to be held no later than January 2025, is a no brainer, never mind his tall claims in the first anniversary video: “We’ve achieved a lot in the year since I became PM. But be in no doubt, there’s so much more to do”. The promotional video also says: “So what can a country achieve in 52 weeks? Watch this space”.

He is clearly eyeing the prospects of helming the UK for at least another 12 months – and promising to do a lot in the coming year. But the funny thing is that Sunak might not even last in Downing Street for another 52 weeks. His first anniversary has coincided with an ominous milestone. Conservative Party rules forbid challenging a leader for 12 months; that protective shield is no longer valid! The field has been thrown open for leadership contests. The bar on sending no confidence letters to the chairman of the 1922 Committee has been lifted.

As things stand, 15 percent of the Tory Parliamentary party, or 53 MPs, can now gang up to pull down Sunak. And if that fate doesn’t befall him, it won’t be because he doesn’t have enough enemies who want to bring him down and humiliate him, but because there might be no takers for the unenviable task of lifting Tories from the dumps at this juncture. Moreover, Sunak would be the perfect fall guy to take the blame for the inevitable Tory rout – so he is most likely to go unchallenged till the voters get rid of him.

A Weak PM’s Desperate Stab At Policymaking

On January 4, Sunak grandly announced five flagship priority policies – halving inflation, growing the economy; reducing national debt, cutting National Health Service waiting lists and passing new laws to stop the small boats to check migrants from crossing the Channel from France. He loftily said: “These are five pledges to deliver peace of mind, so that you know things are getting better, that they are actually changing.”

But inflation is still hovering around 67 percent and as many as 26,000 migrants have managed to sneak in. Essentially he has failed to deliver on the promises he made. He tried to sell himself to Britons as the harbinger of change and even positioned himself against Labour leader Starmer. But his trust ratings are in a free fall. As many as 71 percent of voters don’t think that he can rein in inflation, 72 percent see him as incapable of pumping funds into the NHS to reduce waiting times, and a staggering 75 percent hold him responsible for not detaining and removing illegal immigrants flooding the British coast.

The 43-year-old Sunak’s falling popularity has been aptly summed up by British political scientist Tim Bale who says: “The more people see of Sunak, the less they like him in some ways. He really doesn’t project authority. He doesn’t necessarily give the impression that he is in control. He looks, in part, as if he is sort of lurching from one policy initiative to another in a desperate attempt to curry favour with the electorate.”

Sunak was drafted in a timely damage-control exercise after Boris Johnson and Liz Truss wreaked havoc in their own different ways. He was rightly credited for, in analyst Richard Hayton’s words, calming the factional fighting, helping restore some credibility to the prime minister’s office, but eventually struggled to articulate a coherent or compelling vision for his premiership. For instance, when he took office, 25 percent of Britons thought he would make a “great” PM. Today 50 percent think he is a terrible PM.

In the last four months, Labour has won four out of five byelections, including two in October. Last week, a national survey showed Labour commanding double the support – polling 48 percent compared to Tories’ 24 percent. It foretells a crushing defeat for Conservatives in general elections expected to be held between May and November 2024 – and an inglorious end to Sunak’s prime ministership.

SNM Abdi is an independent journalist specialising in India’s foreign policy and domestic politics. Views are personal, and do not represent the stance of this publication.