What the 2024 elections and 'Char Sau Paar' mean for India

Neither Modi nor his rivals are in doubt about the overall outcome of the polls

The 2024 Lok Sabha elections, with the dates finally out on March 16, are not just to decide Prime Minister Narendra Modi's return for a third term. Rather, they may decide the future course of national politics and governance.

A mandate larger than 2019's popular endorsement for Modi would imply he is further empowered to undertake his promised transformative reforms for India to catapult into the world’s third-largest economy – without wasting time.

Significantly, this is one election where neither Modi nor his rivals are in doubt about the overall outcome.

As he will equal the record of Jawaharlal Nehru who served a consecutive third term, Modi intends to show that the BJP winning a historic number of parliamentary seats is proof of the people's faith in him to usher in changes for a better quality of life.

On the other hand, the Opposition fears Modi's return would only wipe out their base further, polarise the nation and divisive issues will dominate the narrative much to their disadvantage.

Nevertheless, it still hopes to puncture Modi's plans – by trying to reduce the number of seats that the BJP can win.

Modi’s Guarantees, Congress’s Promises 

The Opposition seeks to cast doubts on Modi's integrity, capabilities and record of corruption-free governance though it is less than confident of gaining a mandate for itself to displace him.

Unmindful of future implications, the Congress entangled itself in a web of larger doses of welfare that often defies financial logic. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi's five guarantees hope to woo voters away from the BJP by addressing the most pressing concern of young people in the country from an extreme left-of-the-centre standpoint.

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In its 2019 manifesto, the Congress promised the poorest 20 percent of families an annual cash transfer of Rs 72,000. It achieved success in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka with the promise of doles named as "guarantees."

But the PM has repeatedly referred to the BJP's counter pledges as the ones backed by “Modi ki guarantee.”

No doubt, the 2024 poll battle is about perception of the promises and counter-pledges. Normally, a cash-on-hand offer from the Congress should be more appealing than "Modi's guarantee" of a sure rollout of the BJP's counter pledges.

But the poll results in last year's assembly polls have buoyed the mood in favour of the BJP.  The voters showed in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh that they would prefer to go by their experience of deliveries of Modi's government in the last ten years rather than believe in the incredible promises made by the Congress.

Modi counts on his government's record in providing housing, water supply, cooking gas and other initiatives for the poor, especially women, besides medical care, and welfare schemes for farmers and unorganised workers. The schemes for the youth and a big push in government spending to generate jobs are his talking points.

For this purpose, Modi had rolled out the Viksit Bharat Sankalp Yatra, a nationwide mass contact campaign to spread information and raise awareness about the schemes ranging from housing, food security, and healthcare to LPG cylinders, pensions, and clean drinking water.

The 400 Seat Calculus

Modi is not mincing words in seeking a larger mandate to unleash a fresh set of radical economic reforms. In its two terms so far, Modi found that fractured polity prevented him from taking big strides in big-ticket changes and he has had to make several compromises though his better-targeted welfare measures saw good results.

Modi believes a larger legislative strength should hopefully enable him to undertake reforms in agriculture, land, labour, fertiliser subsidies and electricity generation in India's quest for high economic growth.

In his quest for an impressive mandate, Modi has been making repeated forays into the South, especially hitherto BJP-averse Tamil Nadu and Kerala and hoping to maximise gains in Telangana and retain advantages in Karnataka. The South accounts for 129 seats. Modi is seeking to demolish the hegemony of the Dravidian parties in Tamil Nadu. In Kerala, he wishes to beat the demographic advantage for the Congress and the Left, by wooing the Christian and women voters.

In some states, Modi has been working on alliances to impress voters. In Maharashtra, which has the second largest number of Lok Sabha seats, the BJP is aided by a meltdown of sorts in the opposition.

Of course, Modi's maximum pull is in the northern states though some critics think that the BJP has reached a plateau. The impact of the opening of the Ram temple in Ayodhya has created a wave of devotion, which may convert into big support for Modi's leadership. The BJP is all out to win as many seats as possible in UP.

So, are the 2024 polls all about Modi's "400 paar" for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA)? Perhaps, yes and no.

The figure of 400 parliamentary seats set by Modi is intended to be a target that BJP's rank and file think may be achievable. More importantly, from Modi's perspective, the ruling alliance must gain 50 percent of the vote to silence the BJP's critics who have often questioned the mandates of 2014 and 2019 on the ground it secured less than 40 per cent support among the voters.

For the critics, the return of Modi for the third time has also implications for big things to happen in the next five years. They fear "further damage" to the institutions of democratic set-up in the country and raise questions about the "successful marriage" of business, industry and politics.

2024 And Beyond

Among the catalytic changes in store after the 2024 polls is Modi's determination to synchronise elections for the Lok Sabha and all state Assemblies. The Ram Nath Kovind committee has come up with its recommendations on simultaneous elections, which is to move towards One Nation, One Election. The Law Commission has also backed the idea. Modi is likely to frame tentative timelines to ensure that several assembly polls coincide with the 2029 Lok Sabha elections.

The Opposition sees the whole concept as a very disruptive idea that is intended to put them at a disadvantage and benefit the BJP because of Modi's larger-than-life presence. It worries that states like Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and West Bengal, which go to polls in 2026, could see their terms truncated to synchronise with the 2029 Lok Sabha polls.

Another big issue is the Census that was due in 2021. It was put off owing to the Covid pandemic. It could get started by early 2025 and be completed in a year to enable the launch of the exercise for delimitation of Lok Sabha constituencies from 2026 onwards. The results of this exercise could see the 2029 parliamentary elections being held for a much-enhanced number of constituencies. The southern parties have already voiced serious concern about how their states would be at a severe disadvantage because of their success in population control.

The reservation of 33 percent of Lok Sabha seats for women could be implemented following the completion of the delimitation exercise and cause a tectonic shift within parties, which have not paid attention to the representation of women in their ranks. Delimitation will increase the number of Lok Sabha and Assembly constituencies, and will thus ensure that the reservation of one-third of seats does not affect male MPs and MLAs. In 2002, the Vajpayee government had frozen the delimitation exercise for 25 years.

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The outcome of the 2024 polls will also see how Modi handles other issues and developments that could shape India’s politics in the next decade.

The BJP goes to the Lok Sabha elections in 2024 on the strength of keeping up its promises like consigning Article 370 to the dustbin of history, opening a Ram Temple in Ayodhya and a Uniform Civil Code, which looks like a work in progress.

The big question after the 2024 polls is also about the fight between the BJP and regional parties and the status of the Congress.  If it does not put its house in order,  the Congress seems to be losing relevance and leadership of the non-BJP bloc. The departure of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar reflected this crisis. Trinamool Congress (TMC) supremo Mamata Banerjee's decision to contest all the 42 seats in Bengal added to the damage.  The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) also preferred solo fights in Punjab.

If the 2014 polls marked the real decline of the Congress, followed by the setback in 2019, the 2024 polls are certainly a pointer to the current leadership of the Rahul -Priyanka-Sonia troika while Mallikarjun Kharge remains its face. Perhaps, Congress may be forced to rewrite its ideological agenda. If the 2024 polls are too bad for its pride, the Congress could even look for a new leader.

Shekhar Iyer was senior associate editor of Hindustan Times and political editor of Deccan Herald. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.