US Elections | Inefficient electoral process will further dent US soft power

Image: AP Photo/Andrew Harnik

The final United States Presidential debate between incumbent Donald Trump and Democratic rival Joe Biden, held earlier today (IST), is unlikely to significantly alter the current trajectory of support to either candidate.

Trump could be expected, however, to get some positive bump in support. He was more disciplined, made clear arguments (even if facts were in many cases open to question), and sought to call out his rival on an adversarial approach to the oil industry, and for promising now what he did not deliver on in his nearly five decades in politics and eight years as Vice President.

This could have some impact in the oil producing critical states such as Texas, Pennsylvania and Ohio. Some of Joe Biden’s frailties showed through, with hesitant delivery at times, occasional disruptions in train of thought, and looking at his watch 10 minutes before the end. He sought to build on his appeal as a uniting figure, promising to be a President for all Americans, and not only those who voted for him, and with empathy for the poor, minorities and immigrants.

Listen | What's in store for Indo-US trade ties post US elections?

The debate essentially focused on domestic issues: pandemic, affordable healthcare, unemployment, minimum wages, immigration, race and climate change. Other countries came in for reference only tangentially: Russia, China and Iran for using social media to impact on the elections; Russia, Ukraine and China for alleged business linkages to the candidates or their families; Russia, China and India (by Trump, as in the first debate) for large emissions.

At this stage in the election process, with final voting date 12 days away, most polls show Biden leading. However, much can happen between now and November 3. In 2016, after the third presidential debate, Hillary Clinton was leading in polls. The mood began to turn when the then FBI Director James B Comey issued a statement that he was starting an investigation again in Clinton’s use of a private server for official emails. The final election result was described by many as a surprise to pollsters, as well as to both the Clinton and Trump campaigns.

An additional factor this time is the expectation of a contested result. Trump will not easily accept defeat, if the results go against him. In 2016, Clinton, while losing in electoral college votes, had 3 million more in popular votes. Trump had described that as based on voting fraud. He has described the crowd at his inauguration in January 2017, and at his rallies, as the “biggest ever”. He has already tried to raise doubts about mail-in voting this time.

On account of the pandemic, many more Americans have opted to vote by mail or early, and more than 20 million have already done so. Analysts and pollsters have indicated that more Democratic and Biden supporters will use this facility. When counting begins, first the votes cast on November 3 are counted, followed by the early in-person votes, and finally the mail-in votes.

There could be swings in results as different phases of counting take place. This could lead to calls from both sides, at different stages, challenging the veracity of the process. Resort to court cases could also be expected. These could delay clarity on the final result.

There is also no one election commission responsible for the final result. Each state has its own, and sends certified results and electors to the US Congress which meets in early January. This process takes time. Normally, for public, non-official and accepted purposes the elections have been called by two competing news channel-led processes. They use teams of professionals, data analysts and detailed research to make their predictions while the process is still on. In recent past, except during the Bush-Gore competition in 2000, the elections are called and the losing candidate concedes on election night itself. This may not happen this year.

An inefficient electoral process will further dent US soft power as a vibrant democracy, already challenged by deep racism and resulting violence in the streets. The US also seeks to respond to the Chinese economic, technological and military challenge by showcasing its openness, transparency in governance, rule of law against Chinese authoritarian practices, in a bid to expand its network of allies and partners. There could be reinforcement of self-doubt and divisions within US society, already reeling under suggestions of Russian, Chinese and now Iranian efforts to influence voters through coercion or social media.

The losing side in the presidential, Senate and House races will seek to challenge the legitimacy of the winners as they prepare for the next election cycle. It will also add to the difficulties for the winner to move positively in relations with the three countries.

US leadership in the global context will be challenged by China, wanting to showcase its efficiency in handling COVID-19 and returning to the path of economic recovery. Much is at stake in a quick, clear and accepted outcome of the November US Presidential elections.

Arun K Singh is former Indian Ambassador to the United States. Views are personal.