Closing Bell | Sensex ends 118 points lower, Nifty holds 22200; BSE MidCap up 0.6%, Smallcap gains 1%

#1 INR opening:83.5150

#2 INR Closing: 83.50

Indian rupee remained range bound making a high of 83.4625 and a low of 83.5125 as FPIs remained $ buyers before the crucial election test on 4th June as they continued to sell of equities. Indian rupee is expected to remain in a range of 83.40 to 83.60 tomorrow as FPIs continue their buying and RBI continues its selling.

On May 15th, the Nifty index experienced a volatile trading session, oscillating within a 140-point range. Despite the fluctuations, the market ultimately exhibited sideways momentum, closing with a neutral candlestick on the daily chart.

Should the Nifty index manage to sustain a close above the 22,300 level, where the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) resides, it may extend its upward trajectory towards the 22,600 and 22,800 levels in the forthcoming sessions. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 46.6, indicating an uptick from oversold territory and signaling growing bullish momentum. Conversely, the levels of 22,000 and 21,900 are anticipated to act as support levels.

An analysis of Nifty put options reveals a concentration of Open Interest (OI) at the 22,000 level, implying potential support at this level. On the call side, significant OI concentrations are observed at the 22,500 and 22,600 levels, nearing all-time highs.

Markets languished throughout the session and slipped into the red towards close on profit taking in banking, auto and FMCG stocks, whereas gains in realty, oil & gas and power capped the downside. With rate cuts from the US Fed getting delayed further and FII selling worsening the sentiment, investors are getting nervous and taking a cautious stance amid growing uncertainty.

The market witnessed a sideways movement throughout the day as the emotions of investors were impacted by the election-led jitters. FIIs continued to remain in the selling mode; however, domestic investors were largely concentrated on stock-specific picks. The positive results from the capital goods sector and robust growth outlook gained investors’ attention and led the segment to outperform. A drop in US 10yr yield ahead of the release of sensitive CPI data from the US will be watched carefully by the market to gain insights on rates.

Sensex Today | Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities

Today, the benchmark indices witnessed lackluster activity, the nifty ends 8 points lower while the Sensex was down by 118 points. Among Sectors, PSU Banks gained the most rallied over 1 percent whereas profit booking were seen in selective FMCG and Media stocks. Technically, after two days promising pullback rally the market consolidate near 50 day SMA (Simple Moving Average) or 22300/73300.

The intraday market texture is non directional perhaps traders are waiting for either side breakout . For the bulls now, 50 day SMA or 22300/73300 would act as an immediate breakout level. Above which the market could rally up to 22375-22400/73500-73600. On the flip side, below 22150/72800 the selling pressure is likely to accelerate. Below the same, it could retest the level of 22050-22000/72500-72300.

A volatile week for Nifty with index touching 21850 levels start of the week with all eyes on the last phases of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Last two days saw a bounce back with Metals, PSUs and small caps outperforming the frontline index. Stock specific moves observed on MSCI index rebalance. A few earnings callout - ABB & Siemens surged on huge PAT beat, VBL rallies as company gears up for peak season, BOB falls on higher slippages and credit costs, TaMo shares plunge with peak performance now behind

Global markets maintain momentum ahead of the US April CPI report - to throw more light on Feds interest rate path going forward. FIIs continue to be on a net selling spree - with MTD net selling seen to the tune of Rs 33,540cr. High volatility, elections uncertainty and optionally on Chinese markets recovery drives this bulk FII selling. DIIs have net bought Rs 26,500cr MTD - not aggressive enough to counter the overall FII net outflows. On technicals, immediate resistance is at 22400 levels and the next lower levels to be watched around 22000 levels. India VIX has continues to spike further and has now climbed above 20 levels - highest since Sept 2022

Following three days of rebound, the markets took a pause and closed nearly unchanged. Initially, there was an uptick, but pressure from certain heavyweights pushed the Nifty lower, leading to a range-bound movement until the end of the session. Meanwhile, a mixed trend prevailed on the sectoral front, with energy and realty sectors witnessing gains while FMCG and auto sectors ended in the red. However, the broader indices managed to post modest gains ranging from 0.5% to 1%.

We maintain our cautious outlook on the Nifty index, highlighting the resistance in the 22,300-22,400 zone, and suggest continuing with a stock-specific trading approach. In addition to domestic factors, it's advisable to closely monitor the US markets for cues.

Indian markets closed marginally lower, with Sensex dropping 118 points while Nifty held the 22,200 mark ahead of crucial US inflation data. Sensex closed at 72,987 points, down 0.08%, and Nifty at 22,200 points. Nifty PSU Bank Index led gainers, up 1.4%, followed by Nifty Realty and oil & gas, both up 1%. Nifty FMCG Index was the top loser, down 1%, with Nifty auto down 0.5%. Nifty Bank and Nifty Private Bank indices slipped 0.3% each.

#1 Revenue up 5% QoQ to Rs 1239 crore

#2 EBITDA Rs 83 crore, up 33% QoQ

#3 EBITDA margin 6.7% vs 5.3% QoQ

#1 Net profit at Rs 14 crore vs Rs 11 crore YoY

#2 Revenue Rs 424 crore vs Rs 363 crore YoY

#3 EBITDA Rs 55 crore vs Rs 45 crore YoY

#4 EBITDA margin 13% vs 12.3% YoY

Shares of Siemens soared 7% after the company’s board approved the demerger of its energy business into a new entity, Siemens Energy India Limited, set to be listed on BSE and NSE. This move is part of Siemens’ global restructuring plan but is seen as a positive development by analysts. Both the energy and infrastructure/mobility verticals will benefit from a sharper focus, especially with abundant growth opportunities for both sectors, analysts said. (More read)

#1 Exports rose 1.1% y/y

#2 Imports rose 10.3% y/y

#3 Exports were $34.99bln

#4 Imports were $54.09bln

#5 Services exports was $29.57bln

#6 Services imports was $16.97bln

#1 Net profit down 60% at Rs30.7 cr vs Rs76.6 cr (YoY)

#2 Revenue at Rs811.6 cr vs Rs344.4 cr (YoY)

#3 EBITDA down 46% at Rs52.1 cr vs Rs96.8 cr (YoY)

#4 Margin at 6.4% vs 28% (YoY)

PFC Management stated that they're assessing the RBI draft guidelines and foresee no impact on profitability. There might be some effect on capacity adequacy, but they assure sufficient capital adequacy at around 35%. The RBI's draft proposes higher provisions for infrastructure projects under construction: 5% during construction, 2.5% post-operation, and 1% with ample cash flow. Phased implementation: 2% in FY25, 3.5% in FY26, and 5% by FY27. Presently, lenders allocate 0.4% for non-overdue or stressed project loans.

#1 Net Profit down 12.8% at Rs70.2 cr vs Rs81 cr (YoY)

#2 Revenue up 5% at Rs227.5 cr vs Rs216.8 cr (YoY)

#3 EBITDA down 10.1% at Rs94.4 cr vs Rs105 cr (YoY)

#4 Margin at 41.5% Vs 48.4% (YoY)

#1 Revenue Rs 660 crore, up 7% YoY

#2 Total costs Rs 566 crore, up 5% YoY

#3 Other income Rs 12.97 crore vs Rs 5.7 crore YoY

#1 Overall 0.22 times

#2 QIB 0.00 times

#3 NII 0.14 times

#4 Retail 1.01 times

Markets turned volatile as Lok Sabha elections progressed with the conclusion of Phase 4. Continuing the trend of a dip in voting seen in the first three phases, the 67.3 percent voter turnout in Phase 4 was lower than the 69.6 percent seen in 2019 general elections.

The dip made stock investors nervous, as the market has been factoring in a stronger mandate for the BJP-led NDA this time. However, Bernstein pointed out that historical election data does not show a clear correlation between voter turnout and election outcomes.

The international brokerage stated that one should not read too much into the turnout numbers, as yet at least, and that it would take a lot more than just a drop in vote percentage for the BJP-led NDA tally to see a significant dent and only then India Inc may start factoring in a case of non-continuity. Find out more

#1 Markets will move up if the Modi government comes back, on policy continuity

#2 Incredible opportunity for India in tech advancement and mfg, need to see if India can attract top investment in this space.

#3 My reading is that the Modi govt will loosen restrictions to attract foreign investment

#4 Best way to invest is to buy when others are selling and sell when others are buying

#5 Indian elections are having a big impact on the emotion of the market

#6 Long-term growth investors in India should target smallcap stocks

Market at 1 PM | Sensex, Nifty trade marginally lower in choppy session

The Sensex was down 154.09 points or 0.21 percent at 72,950.52, and the Nifty was down 26.40 points or 0.12 percent at 22,191.40. About 2110 shares advanced, 1224 shares declined, and 79 shares unchanged.

Shares of Policybazaar parent PB Fintech, Thermax, Sundaram Finance and Canara Bank surged in trade on May 15 as the inclusion of these stocks in the MSCI's Global Standard index, post its latest rejig, brought cheer for investors.

On the other hand, share of Paytm parent One97 Communications fell in trade after the stock was thrown out of the MSCI Global Standard index. Nonetheless, it made its way into the MSCI Smallcap index.

Following the rebalancing, shares of Thermax scaled a record high, soaring over 8 percent, followed by Sundaram Finance which was up 6 percent. Aside from these, Canara Bank and PB Fintech were up over 4 percent each. In contrast, Paytm shares were down 1 percent in trade. More

Shares of Siemens surged over 7 percent on May 15 to hit a 52-week high of Rs 7,240 on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) after the company's March quarter results beat street estimates, aided by a strong margin performance and higher other income leading to a sharp beat on profit.

According to analysts, Siemens is better placed to benefit from robust railway/metro capex, especially on large system order potential. Brokerages retained bullish call on the stock and raised target prices as they believe that the company will continue to benefit from a strong demand environment, especially in transmission, data centre, EV, railways, semiconductor, electronics and hydrogen.

Along with the quarterly results, Siemens' board approved a proposal to demerge its energy business into a separate legal entity – Siemens Energy India Ltd. As per the scheme of arrangement, shareholders of Siemens will receive one share of Siemens Energy India for every one share of Siemens. The new entity will subsequently be listed on the BSE and NSE. Read More

Indian rupee continues to hover near its fresh record low ahead of April trade data which is expected to show a wider deficit. At 12.4pm, the home currency was trading little changed at 83.51 a dollar. Earlier in April, the rupee hit a record low of 83.58 a dollar.

#1 EBITDA Rs150 crore vs Rs 90.6 crore YoY

#2 EBITDA margin 6.6% vs 2.49% YoY

#1 Revenue Rs 1180 crore, down 1.7% YoY

#2 Total costs Rs 1000 crore, down 3% YoY

#3 Dividend Rs 1.5 a share

BSE Capital goods soared to a new peak driven by a robust rally in multinational companies (MNCs) like Thermax, Schaeffler India, Siemens, CG Power and Industrial Solutions, SKF India, and Honeywell Automation India. These stocks surged up to 14% during Wednesday's trading session.

#1 Revenue Rs 12240 crore, up 20% YoY

#2 Total cost Rs 7230 crore, up 22% YoY

#3 Dividend Rs 2.5 a share

Voter turnout and its impact on the election outcome is making the market nervous. The market is going with the equation that lower turnout means the BJP may get a lower number of seats as compared to the 2019 election. Our study shows that when BJP replaced the Congress in 2014, voter turnout increased by more than 800 bps. Remember, after 1984 the first time a single party got majority seats in the parliament, unlike in the past, coalition government was the order of the day. We sense that the BJP should get a majority in the parliament without going into the merit of the argument about whether lower turnout is better for the incumbent government. If the market falls before the general election outcome, one can expect a rally post-result. But if there is no meaningful correction, the market may behave like in 2019, where Indices moved down post-election results. Indian market valuations are rich, and that may keep the upside capped. Post-election, the market will start speculating on the budget announcement. This will also keep marketmen busy. Hence, we sense that in the next couple of months the market will likely remain volatile.

A bird in the bush is worth two in hand. That seems to be the approach of many small and high networth individuals looking for potential multibagger stocks in the small cap space. This is reminiscent of the startup bubble a few years back when investors would get excited by the cash burn of a company rather than its profitability. Loss making TIL (formerly Tractors India Limited) saw a strong response to its Rs 50 crore rights issue, which got subscribed 2.15 times overall. Some of the HNIs who applied thinking it would be an all-you-can-eat buffet were disappointed to learn there were many others thinking on similar lines. (More read)

Mid-tier information technology (IT) companies lost more ground than their larger peers in financial year 2023-24 as vendor consolidation deals by clients have led to a decline in revenue growth, and that too on a smaller base. Although mid-tier companies continued to outperform their Tier-1 peers, the year-on-year (YoY) growth rate halved in FY24.

Lower tech spending by clients due to uncertain macroeconomic situations in key markets has been troubling IT companies in the past few quarters, leading to the tepid performance in FY24. (Read more)

NSE announced the suspension of Brightcom Group starting June 14, 2024, until compliance with the Master Circular. Following a 15-day suspension, trading in the company's securities will resume on a Trade for Trade basis in the Z category every week for six months