Punjab election results reflect AAP’s ambition and Congress’ hubris

AAP’s Punjab CM face Bhagwant Mann wins from Dhuri constituency by a margin of 45,000. The Assembly elections were held in Punjab on February, 20 2022 to elect the 117 members of the 16th Assembly of the Punjab Legislative Assembly. AAP is leading in 91 seats and is all set for victory in the state. Workers and supporters celebrate party’s seep towards victory in the state. (Image: Twitter @AAPMumbai)

Arvind Kejriwal’s Punjab dream has turned out to be Rahul Gandhi’s worst nightmare as the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) swept the state, ousting the Congress in a landslide victory in the assembly elections.

The man of the moment, make no mistake, is Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal and not Bhagwant Mann, whom the AAP chief declared as AAP’s chief ministerial candidate for Punjab. Kejriwal had set his ambitions for Punjab when AAP won seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. However, AAP won only 20 seats in the 2017 assembly elections, and failed to live up to the pre-poll hype.

In 2017, Kejriwal was a man in a hurry. It was always the AAP chief’s dream to extend his party’s sphere of influence across India and not stay confined to Delhi which is not a full state.

This time, Kejriwal made no mistakes as he ensured that AAP took the wind out of the Congress’ sails, which had seemed comfortably placed to retain the border state after the BJP burnt its fingers with the farming laws, and the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) still in the woods over charges of mis-governance during its 10-year rule from 2007 to 2017.

During its campaign, AAP was able to sell its Delhi model, especially in health and education sectors, very effectively and efficiently to the voters. It succeeded in tapping the urge for a change on the ground with its slogans:’Ek Mauka Kejriwal nu’ and ‘Ek Mauka AAP nu’ (one chance for Kejriwal, and one chance for AAP).

The projection of Mann, a Lok Sabha member from Sangrur and a comedian-turned-politician with a clean image and no baggage, as the chief ministerial candidate also helped AAP in galvanising the cadre and the voters.

The fact that the voters had made up their mind to give AAP a chance could be gauged from their total rejection of allegations of pro-Khalistan links against Kejriwal by his former associate Kumar Vishwas.

Vishwas’ allegation and a purported letter of support for AAP from a Khalistani group saw the two national political parties and arch-rivals — the BJP and the Congress — joining ranks in the name of preventing a sensitive border state falling into the hands of ‘anti-nationals’.

But these claims and also the narrative built around security and terrorism issues failed to make any impact on the ground.

AAP’s resounding win has left the Congress reeling as it greatly fancied its chances a few months ago. The year-long farmers’ agitation coupled with the appointment of Dalit leader Charanjit Singh Channi as Chief Minister had boosted its hopes of retaining power in the state. The Congress can only blame itself for this debacle. The self-created mess due to a divided house has gone a long way in its humiliating loss.

First things first, the Congress leadership allowed Captain Amarinder Singh to hold on to the Chief Minister's post for four-and-a-half years during which his inaction against the cases of drugs and sacrilege resulted in massive anti-incumbency against his government.

The party leadership also failed to check the growing infighting in the state unit that became too evident in the run up to the elections.

Though replacing Singh with Dalit leader Channi was billed as a masterstroke, his appointment failed to consolidate the Scheduled Caste communities in favour of the Congress. Punjab accounts for the highest Dalit population (~32 percent) in India. Perhaps it was either too late in the day, or the Congress failed in its strategy.

Channi's elevation had antagonised the influential Jat Sikhs who felt slighted. The frequent run-ins between Channi and Punjab Congress president Navjot Singh Sidhu caused an irreparable damage to the party, which also failed in terms of perception management and putting up a counter-narrative to AAP’s development model.

Such is the enormity of AAP wave that all top guns had to bite the dust. These include Channi from both Chamkaur Sahib and Bhadaur, former Chief Ministers Parkash Singh Badal (Lambi), Captain Amarinder Singh (Patiala) and Rajinder Kaur Bhattal (Lehra), SAD chief Sukhbir Singh Badal (Jalalabad), Sidhu and Bikram Singh Majithia (both from Amritsar East) apart from 80 percent of the state Cabinet.

This time, AAP registered a stupendous performance in all the three regions of the state — Malwa, Majha, and Doaba. Malwa accounts for 69 of the 117 constituencies, and decides which party will rule the state. AAP had been strong in this region ever since it ventured into Punjab. Out of the 20 seats that it won in 2017, 18 were from Malwa. Of the remaining 48 seats, 25 are in Majha and 23 in Doaba. AAP has taken a clear lead in these regions too.

With an expansionist AAP taking its first step towards fulfilling Kejriwal’s national ambitions, he will now set his eyes on Gujarat, the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, and Himachal Pradesh, the home state of BJP chief JP Nadda. Both the states go to the polls later this year.

Punjab is undoubtedly a feather in Kejriwal’s cap, but the highly ambitious AAP chief will have to cover a lot of ground before emerging a national player, and a credible alternative to Modi-Shah-Yogi triumvirate.

Aurangzeb Naqshbandi  is a senior journalist who has been covering the Congress for 15 years, and is currently associated with Pixstory.

Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.