New Era in Kerala Politics: UDF's dominance and BJP's historic breakthrough

Voter dissatisfaction with the Pinarayi Vijayan government, tainted by corruption allegations, has played a significant role in these outcomes.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Kerala underwent a significant shift expected to reshape its political landscape. The United Democratic Front (UDF), led by the Congress, emerged victorious in 18 out of 20 seats, signifying a significant change in the state's political dynamics. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured one seat for the first time, while the Left Democratic Front (LDF) managed to win just one. This dramatic shift has far-reaching implications for Congress, the CPI(M), CPI, and the BJP, marking a pivotal moment in Kerala's politics.

UDF and BJP Make Inroads

The UDF's resurgence marks a notable comeback from previous setbacks, fundamentally altering Kerala's political scene. With 14 seats, Congress has strengthened its influence, sending a clear message to its opponents. Rahul Gandhi's overwhelming victory in Wayanad, where he received over 3.04 lakh votes, underscores his significant impact. However, not all prominent figures fared as well. K K Shailaja, a notable CPI(M) leader, suffered a defeat, reflecting a change in voter sentiment.

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The BJP's victory in Kerala is a significant milestone. Suresh Gopi, a former actor and now a politician, led the charge in Thrissur, dealing a blow to both Congress and LDF. This win is the BJP’s first in Kerala's Lok Sabha seat and could change the state’s political dynamics. Gopi’s success may lead to more members defecting from the Congress and CPI(M) to join the BJP, substantially changing Kerala's political landscape.

Setback for LDF

The LDF's electoral challenges are setbacks and pose a severe blow to the CPI(M) and CPI. Kerala remains the only stronghold of the CPI(M), and these election results threaten their already precarious position. The CPI has lost its national party status, and the CPI(M) is also vulnerable. Voter dissatisfaction with the Pinarayi Vijayan government, tainted by corruption allegations, has played a significant role in these outcomes. The CPI(M)'s strategy of fielding high-profile candidates and leveraging its organisational strength has yet to resonate with the electorate, highlighting their current difficulties.

The recent underperformance of CPI(M) and CPI has led to increased internal unrest, raising concerns about the potential loss of their national party status. Corruption allegations and growing anti-incumbency sentiments have strained the party's internal unity. If they fail to retain national party status, it could lead to open rebellion within the ranks. The CPI(M) must address these internal issues and reconnect with the electorate to regain footing.

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After the 2021 assembly elections defeat, Congress revamped its leadership, with K Sudhakaran taking over as state president and V D Satheesan becoming the opposition leader. Their strong performance has increased confidence in their leadership, but maintaining this positive momentum will be a crucial challenge.

The Congress must navigate internal party dynamics and coalition politics, particularly with the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML). The upcoming Rajya Sabha seat election will test Congress's ability to manage these complex relationships effectively.

UDF makes Gains

In Kerala, political analysts attribute the UDF's success to widespread dissatisfaction with the eight-year-old CPI(M) government led by Pinarayi Vijayan. This discontent was noticeable even among CPI(M) supporters. Early analysis suggests that Congress has regained the support of minority Muslim and Christian voters, which is crucial to their electoral victory. These voters, who had shifted to the LDF in the 2021 assembly elections, returned to the Congress fold, significantly contributing to their success.

The recent developments in Kerala signal a potentially significant change in the BJP's influence in the region. Led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the BJP's strategic approach has resulted in securing one seat and reflects their ongoing efforts to engage with Christian communities. The victory in Thrissur demonstrates the effectiveness of the BJP's grassroots initiatives, providing a solid foundation for the party to expand its presence in Kerala and set ambitious electoral goals for the future.

However, the BJP faced disappointment in Thiruvananthapuram as their candidate, Rajeev Chandrasekhar, lost to Shashi Tharoor of the Congress. Chandrasekhar, Union Minister of State for Information Technology in the outgoing cabinet, expressed his disappointment but noted the growing support for the BJP among Kerala’s populace. He pointed out that although they couldn't secure the win, they ran a clean campaign and saw significant support from the people of Kerala. Chandrasekhar also acknowledged that the BJP's overall performance in India was below expectations, leading in only around 300 seats as opposed to the 350 to 400 predicted by exit polls. Nonetheless, he expressed confidence in the BJP’s ability to form the government, leaving the decision to the leadership in Delhi.

The Kerala election results will have significant implications for national politics. The Congress and the CPI(M) are part of the INDIA bloc, an anti-BJP coalition. The UDF's strong performance in Kerala enhances the Congress's standing within this alliance, while the CPI(M)'s poor performance may diminish its influence. Although the BJP's gains are modest, they indicate a potential breakthrough in a state traditionally resistant to the party, which could have broader implications for national politics.

The 2024 Lok Sabha elections have realigned political alliances and paved the way for a transformative period in Kerala's politics.