If a ground invasion can’t take out Hamas, what’s Israel’s Plan-B?

Israel-Hamas War

The world seems to be on the edge waiting for Israel to launch its ground invasion of the Gaza Strip, which everyone seems to be sure is coming, but no one knows when. A precursor could be the limited raid by Israeli tanks into Gaza. The invasion, if and when it comes, will be a response to the horrific massacre of Israeli citizens bordering the Gaza Strip by the terror group, Hamas.

However, it has been over two weeks, and the purported invasion of the Gaza Strip seems to be on hold, giving rise to a number of news leaks and theories. Some suggest that the US is putting pressure on the Israelis to hold it back since they want the nearly 200 hostages to be released first.

There is also growing alarm at the massive Palestinian civilian deaths after Israel began to bomb Gaza following the Hamas massacre. Hundreds of children and women are believed to be among those killed so far in the bombings.

An invasion of Gaza, not the first for the Israelis, is fraught with risks and no easy outcomes. That seems to be the likeliest reason for the delay as the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) called up its reserves and positioned its land forces along the border with Gaza.

Haunted By Intelligence Failure

The foremost question that precedes any military operation are the objectives it aims to achieve and at what cost. It is clear from the events of October 7 that the much-touted Israeli intelligence services failed completely to prevent the attack.

The failure to protect Israeli citizens is also being seen as the failure of its divisive Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, who had been pushing for undermining the Israeli judiciary leading to massive protests from citizens, the military and even its intelligence services.

The fact that Hamas could plan such an elaborate attack that claimed the lives of 1,400 Israelis and take 200 hostages without being detected is a massive intelligence failure. The training, planning, and equipping must have taken months of preparation. How did Israeli intelligence miss the planning of such an operation of this scale and complexity?

There is also the disturbing fact that once the attack started, the IDF was clueless. Reports show that a team from the Israeli domestic security intelligence agency Shin Bet was sent to Southern Israel. But even hours after the attack, the Israeli military’s response seemed clueless, confused, and ill-planned, leading to pitched battles that continued the following day.

Both, the failure to anticipate the attack and the poor response draws a spotlight on the massive intelligence gap for a planned ground invasion. Does the IDF have the intelligence to target Hamas – and finish it off as a threat – through a ground invasion? Clearly, it does not seem to as the indiscriminate air bombings show.

Fighting In An Urban Built-up Area

Any invasion of Gaza would be a nightmare for military planners. It is one of the densest places in the world, with a population of nearly 2 million people living in 141 square miles. That is a little over 15,000 people per square mile of land, equivalent to Hong Kong or London.

Most of the area is an urban concrete jungle, known in military parlance as a “built up area”. Carrying out operations in an urban built up area is the hardest where every street and building will have to be wrested from the enemy.

Think of the US military in the battle of Mogadishu, Somalia in 1993. The Americans were going after Somali National Alliance leader, the self-styled General Mohammed Farah Aideed. The operation to get him downed a Black Hawk helicopter leading to committing more US troops that led to a major setback as the Somali militants used the urban setting to their advantage.

The US military, trying to maneuver through the narrow streets of Mogadishu became sitting ducks for the Somali militants who used every rooftop and street corner to their tactical advantage.

The fact that Hamas co-exists with the civilian population will also restrict operations unless Israeli generals are ready for mass collateral deaths of civilian Palestinians. The rising casualties of innocent Palestinian civilians has already begun to turn global opinion against an invasion.

The IDF will also have to factor in more casualties among its ranks as it sends in its soldiers into Gaza.  Whether the largely discredited Netanyahu can justify more Israeli deaths once it launches a messy ground invasion also remains to be seen.

Uncertain Outcomes

Finally, there is no guarantee if a ground invasion will help Israel take out Hamas, as is being claimed. Israel’s stated aim is to crush Hamas militarily and politically. But it also needs to protect its Northern and Western borders. So it will be using only a part of the IDF for the ground invasion.

It also wants to let the air campaign get over, in the hope that it will reduce Israeli casualties once they go into the Gaza Strip. So far, assessments suggest about 1,500 Hamas combatants have been killed, the rest being Palestinian civilians.

But decades of war have revealed that while Israelis and Palestinians have managed to kill each other successfully for generations, there is no alternative other than a two-nation solution. The Israeli occupation of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip after the successful six-day war in 1967 has only added to its troubles.

Hamas, which is a designated terrorist organisation, has revealed that it can carry out brutal attacks that were last seen perpetrated by ISIS. The growth of Hamas is also due to the failure of the peace process, allowing Hamas to win the elections in the Gaza Strip in 2006 and forcibly take over the administration in 2007.

Despite an Israeli lockdown, it continued to smuggle in enough weapons and munitions to carry out a sustained war of attrition. A ground invasion at this stage might offer some narrow tactical advantages. But as history has shown, violence will beget more violence, and another generation of Israelis and Palestinians will have to prepare for more bloodshed instead of peace.

Saikat Datta is the Co-founder and CEO of DeepStrat, a New Delhi-based think tank and strategic consultancy. Views are personal, and do not represent the stance of this publication.