China’s stock rises in Maldives but India’s footprints are too deep to efface

Maldives President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih (left) and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during their meeting in New Delhi, on August 2, 2022. (AP Photo/File)

Only a miracle can keep the Maldives’ pro-India President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih in office after his defeat at the hands of pro-China Mohamed Muizzu in the general elections. Among eight contestants, Muizzu followed by Solih had led the pack polling 46 and 39 percent votes, respectively.

But as neither of them secured more than 50 percent votes, there will be a second and final round – called a “runoff” election in the archipelago’s constitution – on September 30 between the two. Technically, Solih can still come from behind and upstage Muizzu in the straight fight but the latter’s sizeable lead in the first round on September 9 makes him the hot favourite to harvest over 50 percent of votes in the runoff to evict Solih from power.

A Pro-China, Anti-India Axis

For all practical purposes, it’s now curtains for Maldives Democratic Party (MDP)’s Solih. He genuinely adopted an “India First” policy since 2018 embracing New Delhi and shunning Beijing, reversing the pronounced tilt towards China from 2013 to 2018 during Abdullah Yameen’s Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM) rule.

But Solih’s presidency also witnessed the cementing of an alliance of China’s proxies – the PPM and Muizzu’s People’s National Congress (PNC) – which united the principal opposition against MDP. With ex-President Yameen jailed on corruption charges and barred from contesting the polls, the opposition coalition fielded Muizzu, who with PPM’s full backing made the containment of India’s influence over Maldives a key election plank – and it has clearly paid off.

Solih’s “India First” foreign policy nicely complemented our own “Neighbourhood First” thrust giving us the upper hand in the strategically located small Indian Ocean country straddling some of the busiest sea-lanes in the world. It was a dream run for India for five long years in its own backyard.

But Yameen, at China’s prodding, launched an “India Out” campaign against what he called New Delhi’s unchecked presence and dominance in all spheres ranging from politics and economics to defence and security. Muizzu, who was fielded as the opposition candidate barely three weeks before the elections as there was no judicial reprieve for Yameen, broadly subscribes to the latter’s anti-India views but has a more nuanced stand on relations with New Delhi. Overall, both oppose India and repose their faith in China.

India Mustn’t Despair

While it is true that Maldives is on the cusp of a regime change tilting the balance in favour of Beijing, India as the resident power has no reasons to panic or despair. The best course for India is to keep its head down and work quietly to a plan, in the somewhat difficult situation.

Luckily, India has made big investments, especially in infrastructure, to fall back on. India should tend to the big and small projects that were launched when the going was good. It must keep allocating funds generously for resource-hungry Maldives.

At this juncture, it’s best to approach geopolitics like a game of cricket. Having batted long enough in Maldives, now it’s time to do the fielding.  Batting does give you a sense of power and a heady feeling, but intelligent fielding can be a game changer. And over and above everything, India should repose faith in the common Maldivian as the umpire.

The sheer size of India’s loans and financing, particularly multi-million dollar infrastructure financing, should keep the morale high when Solih is gone. No sooner had Male adopted an “India First” policy and walked out on China, New Delhi had approved a $1.4 billion financial package to help loan paybacks to Beijing.

Besides the $500 million Thilamale bridge announced in 2021 connecting Male to three islands via a 6.74-kilometre sea bridge – which is the single largest infrastructure project in Maldives’ history and three times longer than the Chinese built Sinamale bridge – India is funding drinking water and drainage schemes, schools and hospital buildings, including a cancer hospital, sports stadiums in several islands, a new port and an airport upgrade. India also quadrupled financial aid for Maldives and its current total financial commitment is a staggering $3 billion.

India’s chequebook diplomacy will keep paying good dividends if the country treads carefully in the post-Solih period and doesn’t pick up unnecessary fights. Another buffer is the differences between Muizzu and Yameen over India.

Muizzu Isn’t Yameen

Yameen, the power behind Muizzu, is so pathologically anti-India that he wants to remove any vestige of New Delhi’s hold over Maldives and become a satellite of China. His “India Out” targeted every facet of New Delhi’s famed grip on Maldives. He wants to get rid of India lock, stock and barrel. From behind bars, he even made Prime Minister Narendra Modi a central figure in the last stages of the election campaign to rally Maldives’ Muslim masses.

But Muizzu isn’t so radicalised or a hardliner. He wants “India’s Military Out” rather than “India Out”. Swearing by Maldives’ sovereignty and independence, he has promised revoking all defence and strategic pacts the Solih regime has signed with India.

He has vowed to remove Indian troops stationed in Maldives and take control of certain ports and airports for the near-exclusive use of Indian defence forces. While all these are “non-negotiable”, Muizzu is, unlike Yameen, otherwise in favour of friendly and balanced relations with the archipelago’s closest neighbour and has specifically said that he won’t mess around with any India-funded projects, including Thilamale bridge – the piece de resistance of India’s investments. So there is scope for building bridges with him.

India’s foreign policy and security establishments owe it to PM Modi, no less, for keeping Maldives in India’s orbit. Very few people know that Modi played a key role in making Maldives a rare success story in Indian neighbourhood diplomacy by befriending his counterpart and making the job of Indian diplomats easier. Modi was also at Solih’s swearing-in ceremony in 2018 and surely wanted to return in 2023 but that, unfortunately, now appears unlikely.

SNM Abdi is an independent journalist specialising in India’s foreign policy and domestic politics. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.