The Art of the Squeeze? What Trump's oil deal with Pakistan really signals to India

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In a space of just a few hours, US President Donald Trump delivered a triple blow to India — first slapping a 25% tariff and penalties on Indian goods, then calling its economy "dead", and finally announcing an oil deal with Pakistan. To top it all, Trump suggested that Pakistan may even end up selling oil to India — a tasteless remark coming just days after a serious military escalation between the two countries.

Trump has often described India as America's "friend" and always greeted Prime Minister Narendra Modi with a fair degree of warmth — a rare gesture, given the US President's proclivity for strong-arming world leaders in public and asserting himself as the dominant figure in the room.

So why has Trump suddenly gone hostile on India, especially at a time when New Delhi is waging a diplomatic war against Pakistan-sponsored terrorism. The answer may lie in an old book Trump often cites as his playbook for striking tough bilateral bargains: The Art of the Deal.

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The book, published in 1987 and co-authored by journalist Tony Schwartz, mentions how boldness, confidence and "strategic showmanship" are key to making big business deals. The book promotes an aggressive, win-first mindset that has shaped Trump’s business, and now political style. It also mentions how projecting strength and controlling the narrative are just as important as numbers.

The US President has used similar tactics not just on India, but several other countries, in a bid to strike favourable deals that seemingly protect American interests. And it's nothing personal, just business.

Just a few weeks ago, US and China were involved in an escalatory tariff upmanship battle, with both countries announcing higher levies on each other every day. Trump was deploying a similar tactic to strong-arm China into submission. Beijing, however, resisted the pressure.

Now, Trump appears to be bullying India into making a favourable "US-centric" deal at a time when Indian negotiators are pushing hard to protect domestic interests (think MSMEs, dairy sector, auto industry, etc). The US is also unhappy about New Delhi's historical ties with Moscow and its reliance on arms and equipment from Russia. The US wants to sell its weapons to India and wants to wean New Delhi away from Moscow.

A report in the NDTV said that an oil deal with Pakistan is another way of Washington to put pressure on India to stop buying Russia crude and purchase from US instead.

This may make sense since Pakistan’s proven oil reserves are modest by global standards. According to estimates from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the CIA, Pakistan has around 332–353 million barrels of proven reserves — ranking it about 52nd in the world. At its current consumption rate of 550,000 barrels per day, these reserves would be exhausted in under two years if relied upon exclusively.

However, some earlier studies — most notably a 2015 joint report by the EIA and Advanced Resources International (ARI) — suggest Pakistan might possess up to 9.1 billion barrels of technically recoverable shale oil, particularly in the Indus Basin. But these figures remain speculative since no commercial-scale exploration or extraction has validated them to date.

In contrast, India possesses far more substantial proven reserves, between 4.5 to 4.8 billion barrels, ranking it around 23rd to 25th globally. However, India too remains heavily import-dependent, sourcing over 80% of its crude oil from abroad and increasingly diversifying its suppliers amid geopolitical turbulence. And US wants to tap into that.

Earlier this year, during a visit to US, Prime Minister Narendra Modi committed to increasing oil and gas imports from US. The arrangement allowed India to diversify away from sanctioned suppliers like Russia and Iran, while signaling cooperation with Washington. Yet, Russia remains among India’s top three crude suppliers, a fact that continues to irk Trump.

Whether the oil deal with Pakistan is a genuine opportunity or a calculated move by the US President to counterbalance India, only time will tell. The details remain vague for now.

However, the timing strongly suggests it’s a strategic signal: that Pakistan, India’s rival, could be empowered if New Delhi doesn’t align more closely with Washington’s energy and trade priorities.

What is clear is that Trump is once again using his trademark hardball tactics against India, something he has employed throughout his career in both business and politics. For the US President, that's The Art of the Deal.