'The 36%' factor: Decoding the math behind Rahul-Tejashwi’s big bet on EBCs in Bihar

Congress leaders Mallikarjun Kharge, Rahul Gandhi, with RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav and others during the launch of 'Ati Pichda Nyay Sankalp' in Patna on Wednesday. (PTI)

Congress MP and Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi on Wednesday unveiled the Ati Pichhda Nyaya Sankalp Patra (Extremely Backward Justice Resolution) in Bihar — a 10-point programme promising a wide range of benefits for the state’s Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs).

Jointly prepared by the Mahagathbandhan partners, the resolution makes a series of pledges that the Opposition alliance says will be implemented if it comes to power in the upcoming assembly elections.

What Rahul Gandhi promises

• Passage of an Extremely Backward Atrocity Prevention Act.
• Raising the EBC quota in panchayats and urban local bodies from 20% to 30%.
• Lifting the 50% reservation cap in line with population share, and sending the state law for inclusion in the Ninth Schedule of the Constitution.
• Declaring the concept of “Not Found Suitable” in recruitment as illegal.
• Forming a committee to resolve issues of over- or under-inclusion in the EBC list.
• Providing residential land to all landless persons from EBC, SC, ST and OBC categories — 3 decimals in urban areas, 5 decimals in rural.
• Ensuring half of private-school reserved seats under the RTE Act go to children from EBC, OBC, SC, and ST backgrounds.
• 50% reservation for EBC, SC, ST, and OBC groups in government contracts up to ₹25 crore.
• Reservation in all private educational institutions of the state under Article 15(5).
• Setting up a Reservation Regulatory Authority to oversee and safeguard caste-based quotas.

EBCs, a sub-category within the OBC umbrella, comprise socially and educationally disadvantaged groups considered more marginalised than the broader OBCs. They are not recognised as a separate constitutional category like SCs or STs, but were carved out to ensure representation for the most deprived among the OBCs.

According to Bihar’s caste census (October 2023), EBCs make up 36% of the population, making them one of the most decisive blocs in the state’s politics. Yet the bloc is fragmented: of the 112 castes under the category, only 12 exceed 1% of the population. The Telis, Mallahs, Kanus, and Dhanuks — each above 2% — form the largest groups, while Muslim Julahas constitute 3.5%.

Why EBC Votes Matter

The EBC bloc has been the pivot of Bihar politics for decades. Karpoori Thakur, himself an EBC, was the first to advance their cause. But it was Nitish Kumar who built enduring political capital around them through Ati Pichhda schemes, bicycles for schoolgirls, and quotas in panchayats, positioning himself as their patron saint.

Lokniti-CSDS data reveals that in 2010, nearly half (45–50%) supported the JD(U)-BJP combine, giving Nitish a landslide. By 2015, when Nitish joined hands with Lalu Prasad Yadav, about 55% swung to the Mahagathbandhan. In 2020, the tide turned again, with around 45% backing the NDA, while the RJD-led alliance managed only about a third.

That swing potential makes them decisive. With Nitish seen as losing ground due to age and health, rivals sense an opportunity -- the vote bank that once served as his political insurance may no longer be locked in.

Mahagathbandhan's push for EBCs

Rahul Gandhi’s new resolution is part of a broader Opposition effort to capture this 36% bloc. The RJD, too, has been recalibrating its social engineering beyond its traditional Muslim-Yadav (MY) base.

In June, it appointed Mangani Lal Mandal, a leader from the Dhanuk caste, as state party president, replacing Jagdanand Singh, a senior Thakur leader and Lalu loyalist. The choice clearly underlined the party's intent to punch a hole into the very boat that has long kept Nitish Kumar afloat.

The arithmetic is stark: Muslims (17.7%) and Yadavs (14.3%) alone cannot deliver a majority in Bihar’s bipolar contest. To forestall a direct INDIA vs NDA battle, the Mahagathbandhan is betting on adding the EBC bloc to its coalition.

Whether this strategy works will only be tested when Bihar votes in November. For now, the EBCs remain the state's most coveted political prize. And perhaps its ultimate swing factor.