Bihar verdict: NDA turns vote share into seats, MGB falters in direct fights

The NDA registered a thumping majority in the recently concluded Bihar Assembly elections. (File: PTI)

The 2025 Bihar Assembly elections turned out to be less a contest of vote shares and more about strike-rate supremacy. Data shows that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) did exceedingly well to convert its votes into seats with an efficiency the Opposition simply could not match.

While both alliances were within striking distance on paper in terms of vote share, the NDA's compact social coalition, disciplined seat-sharing and near-perfect vote transfer gave it a decisive edge over the Mahagathbandhan.

The NDA displayed an exceptionally high strike rate in direct contests with the Mahagathbandhan. In 28 seats where it faced the Congress one-on-one, the BJP won 25 seats with a strike rate of 89.3%. Even against the RJD, traditionally its toughest rival in Bihar, the BJP's strike rate stood at a formidable 84% as it bagged 42 of the 50 seats where they squared off.

BJP's dominance was 100% against Left parties with wins in all 11 seats where they were in direct contest.

Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's JD(U) also registered an impressive strike rate of 82.8%, winning 48 seats out of 58 in direct contests against the RJD. Its strike rate was 78.9% (15 of 19) against Congress, and 85.7% (12 of 14) against the Left.

The BJP's 2025 strike rate is significantly higher than 67.3% in 2020 and 65.4% in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The JD(U), on the other hand, more than doubled its 2020 tally of 37.4% to 83.2%, exceeding its tally of 74.2% in 2024.  Chirag Paswan’s LJP (RV) secured 67.9% as compared to 96.7% in 2024.

On the other hand, the RJD collapsed to a strike rate of 17.5% from 52.1% in 2020 and 26.1% in 2024. The Congress performed even worse at 9.8%, sliding from 27.1% in 2020 and 22.2% in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

The CPI(ML)L, which commanded a strike rate of 63.2% in 2020 and 60% in 2024, dropped to just 10% in 2025 while the VIP fell from 30.8% in 2020 and 5.6% in 2024 to 0 this year.

Region-wise the party registered its best performance in Mithilanchal with a strike rate of around 90%. and 85% in Tirhut. In Magadh, the party won more than half the seats, marking a notable recovery in a region once seen as an RJD bastion.

Its most strategic breakthrough came in Bhojpur, where the BJP captured a 44.7% vote share and breached Mahagathbandhan strongholds, aided by vote splits triggered by the AIMIM and Jan Suraaj's presence.