Not floor test, here are the real challenges that await Hemant Soren in an election year

Going ahead, hemant was kept in jail for five months in a “false” case led by an agency controlled by the Centre, “forcing” him to leave the post of CM.

On July 8, when Jharkhand chief minister Hemant Soren will take the floor test, a different kind of challenge will be thrown at him. Not one is usually associated with a floor test—in which the numbers play a decisive role in deciding the winner.

With 46 MLAs (JMM & allies) the chief minister is expected to sail through. After the recently held Lok Sabha polls where 4, two each from BJP and JMM become Lok Sabha members and the expulsion of Sita Soren from JMM, the effective strength of the house stands at 76.

The JMM-Congress-RJD alliance has been running the government since 2019 when a Soren-led campaign dislodged Raghubar Das’s BJP government.

Changed political landscape

The changed political landscape will throw up multiple challenges before Hemant Soren. Making sense of what the change may entail, one can see the fact that for the first time in the state, no MLA was sworn in as a minister along with the chief minister. Media reports say that it was a well-planned strategy not to swear in any minister before the floor test.

Rumble over ministerial berths

In January, when Hemant Soren went to jail and Champai Soren took over the reins, there was a growing clamour within the party over ministerial berths. It was on January 31, ahead of his arrest by the ED that Soren deputed the senior leader from Kolhan region as his successor. Media reports claim that pressure mounted on Champai Soren as many MLAs wanted to become ministers. Post Hemant’s return as the chief minister, after he was granted bail by the Jharkhand High Court, there seems to have started another round of discussion on giving ministerial berths to MLAs, especially keeping the Assembly election, scheduled later this year, in mind.

How numbers favour Hemant in floor test

The JMM-led alliance has a majority in the state assembly despite its numbers reducing to 45 MLAs. The JMM has 27 MLAs, the Congress has 17 and the RJD has 1. Two JMM MLAs, Nalin Soren, and Joba Majhi, are now Lok Sabha members, while Jama legislator Sita Soren resigned to contest the general elections on a BJP ticket.

How should Hemant view the recent LS poll outcome?

The performance of the coalition in this Lok Sabha election is also unprecedented as they won 5 out of 14 seats. All of these five seats are ST-reserved. Political observers believe that sympathy over Soren’s arrest actually helped the coalition to sail through the parliamentary elections and they don’t want to lose the momentum. Jharkhand is going to the Assembly polls later this year. JMM as has won three out of the five seats it contested in Lok Sabha elections, the party is hoping to gain much in the 28 ST-reserved seats among 80 assembly seats.

BJP makes ouster of Champai Soren issue in Jharkhand

State BJP leaders continue to criticise the Jharkhand government for removing Champai Soren as the chief minister two days after Hemant Soren, out from jail on bail, returned as CM weeks ahead of assembly polls later this year. Several BJP leaders have termed the move as an insult to the tribal community of Jharkhand.

"JMM and the entire INDIA bloc leaders are only concerned about power and dynasty. It has been proved in Jharkhand that only someone from Hemant Soren's family will be the chief minister and others cannot aspire to lead the state. The people of Jharkhand are going to teach these parties a lesson in upcoming assembly polls," said BJP Jharkhand election in-charge and union minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan.

Why INDIA bloc is betting big on Hemant

Going ahead, the JMM led by Hemant is set to go to the public with the message that he was kept in jail for five months in a “false” case led by an agency controlled by the Centre, “forcing” him to leave the post of CM. With elections due at the end of the year, this is the best-case scenario for the JMM, which is anyway on the upswing after its Lok Sabha poll performance. The INDIA grouping will hope to consolidate its position in the upcoming state polls, thereby present a visible marker of its growing clout as a strong and the only viable opposition.