Modi’s PNG visit highlights scramble for influence in the Pacific

Modi’s PNG visit highlights scramble for influence in the Pacific

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Papua New Guinea (PNG) this week brought the focus back on an ongoing scramble between global and regional powers for expanding influence on the strategically important islands in the Pacific Ocean.

The United States has been the dominant power in the Pacific since World War II.

But China’s aggressive rise and attempt to establish itself as an equally powerful player in the Pacific in recent months has created considerable tension in the region.

Modi visited Papua New Guinea for the Forum for India-Pacific Islands Cooperation (FIPIC) summit, --an initiative that he began in 2014 to deepen and strengthen relations with the 14-member islands of the FIPIC.

He was the first Indian Prime Minister to visit PNG.

The 14 countries that are in the FIPIC include, Cook Islands, Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Nauru, Niue, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu – islands that are located to the northeast of Australia in the Pacific Ocean.

Strategic importance

Modi, who also visited Australia, called for a “free, open, and inclusive” Indo-Pacific region.

Although the islands are mostly small in size, it is their extended Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs)—about 200 to 230 miles -- as well as their location that enhances their strategic importance.

India is a major power in the Indian Ocean region, but it wants to expand presence in the Pacific through its engagement with the islands under FIPIC.

Experts say the Pacific has long been seen as the United States’ backyard and a region where Australia holds a hegemonic status.

China factor

The increased tussle between the US and China over the Taiwan issue has been a major factor for hectic activities between the outside powers and the island nations in the Pacific.

China has been overactive in the region to convince the island's nations to switch their diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to the People’s Republic of China (PRC).

Beijing fears being encircled by the islands under the influence of the US and its allies to curtail its rise and use the islands to launch attacks in the event a war breaks out over Taiwan.

China has made significant inroads in many of the islands by offering to build its infrastructure under its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and by providing military and financial assistance to these countries.

Tension in the region has begun to rise. China signed a bilateral security agreement with Solomon Islands last year.

US response

The US and its allies saw it as a major challenge in the region that America has dominated for the past 70 years.

They feared the agreement was the first step by China to secure a military presence in the Pacific.

China has also provided Fiji with warships and begun construction of a port and roads in Papua New Guinea.

Its decision to build a large seaport in Vanuatu has alarmed observers who believe that it will later be used as a military base.

China has convinced Kiribati to switch diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing, which strategists see as China’s attempt to expand a pro-Beijing bloc around Australia to gain geopolitical advantage over the US.

America has also begun to increase its military footprint across the Indo-Pacific to bolster a line of defence against an assertive China.

“War is not inevitable, and it's not imminent,” experts say, but acknowledge that this decade presents a period of increased risk.

Military presence

The US provides economic assistance to countries like the Marshall Islands, Micronesia and Palau in exchange for military cooperation under its compacts of free association agreements.

The Biden administration has requested $7.1 billion over 20 years to fund economic assistance and postal services in the three island nations.

The Pacific compact nations are strategically important because of their proximity to sea lanes that connect Australia to Northeast Asia and North America, and extends from Japan's Ogasawara Islands to Guam and Papua New Guinea.

In the event of a war with China over Taiwan, they could be potential locations for military operations,

The US plans to install an advanced radar system in Palau to bolster over-the-horizon situational awareness in the region.

It deployed F-35 fighter jets there in 2022.

The US has an agreement with Micronesia to develop military facilities that can also serve as a resupply hub for aircraft and vessels.

America operates a missile test site under a lease through 2066 in the Marshall Islands.

Washington is spreading military assets across the Pacific in response to China's growing missile capabilities, both in precision and in range.

India factor

Observers say that India offers a “third option” in the ongoing Sino-US tussle for dominance in the region.

India announced a 12-point development plan for the Pacific Island nations in a range of areas like healthcare, renewable energy and cyber-security.

India will establish a super specialty cardiology hospital in Fiji and assist in setting up dialysis units in all the 14 island countries.

It has also decided to provide sea ambulances to all the FIPIC member countries.

At the FIPIC summit, leaders described Modi as ‘the leader of the Global South’ and asked him “to offer a third big voice in the face of the global north.”

Part of this could indeed be rhetoric by the local leaders, but Modi’s presence at the summit shows that India can genuinely offer a third option to countries in the Pacific Ocean.