Major overhaul soon in Karnataka? Fate of Siddaramaiah, Shivakumar at crossroads

Karnataka CM Siddaramaiah (R) and deputy CM Shivakumar

The Congress in Karnataka is on the verge of significant reorganisation, with a cabinet reshuffle and a possible change in the presidency of the Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC) looming large. This much-discussed reshuffle is expected to bring new faces to the cabinet, potentially infusing fresh perspectives and strategies into the state's governance.

Additionally, a shift in the party’s state-level leadership could also be on the horizon. Sources suggest that these changes are driven by a combination of factors, including the need to address internal dissatisfaction, improve governance, and revamp the party's strategy following its disappointing performance in the recent Lok Sabha elections.

Chief minister Siddaramaiah is under scanner for alleged irregularities in allocating sites by the Mysuru Urban Development Authority (MUDA). Karnataka governor Thaawarchand Gehlot is yet to decide on whether to allow Siddaramaiah's prosecution. This decision is important for the timing of any potential cabinet reshuffle. The governor's ruling, expected after the Independence Day celebrations, could either pave the way for the cabinet changes or cause further delays.

Despite pressure from the BJP-JD(S) alliance, Siddaramaiah has strengthened his position within the Congress high command. His position appears secure, regardless of the governor’s decision. During a recent Janandolana meeting in Mysuru, Siddaramaiah’s cabinet colleagues strongly supported him, indicating a shift in the party's internal dynamics.

Sources suggest that those within the party who previously doubted Siddaramaiah’s leadership have now come together to support him, encouraged by the backing of AICC general secretaries KC Venugopal and Randeep Singh Surjewala. They have publicly defended Siddaramaiah and dismissed MUDA's allegations of illegal allotment of sites as baseless.

The support from the top leadership and his colleagues indicates that even if the Governor allows prosecution, Siddaramaiah is unlikely to resign. The Congress's top leadership, including AICC President Mallikarjuna Kharge, stands firmly with him during this challenging period. Political analysts believe that the Congress leadership has realised that removing a popular leader like Siddaramaiah could have negative consequences, similar to the backlash the BJP faced when they compelled BS Yediyurappa to step down.

However, Siddaramaiah's position is partially unchallenged. The call for leadership change has been amplified by influential figures such as the Vokkaliga pontiff, Kumara Chandrashekaranatha Swami, who publicly urged Siddaramaiah to hand over power to DK Shivakumar. This statement, made during the 515th birth anniversary of Bengaluru founder Kempegowda, an icon of the Vokkaliga community, has reignited discussions about the rumoured power-sharing agreement between Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar. Other prominent Vokkaliga leaders and seers echoed the pontiff's remarks, adding pressure on Siddaramaiah to make way for Shivakumar.

DK Shivakumar, the current president of KPCC, has played a crucial role in organising the party and ensuring its success in the 2022 assembly elections. His supporters argue that he deserves the position of Chief Minister, which he narrowly missed during the post-election negotiations. Shivakumar's dedication and influence within the party have fueled speculation, with many believing that his time to lead the state is approaching.

Siddaramaiah stated that the party leadership would decide on any changes in response to the calls for change. However, the increasing demands from the Vokkaliga community and Shivakumar's ambitions indicate that the leadership conflict within the Karnataka Congress is far from over.

Amid these leadership shifts, the upcoming cabinet reshuffle is anticipated to be based on performance. The party's central leadership reportedly records each minister's contributions to the government's performance and electoral success. This approach emphasises accountability and aims to replace ministers who still need to meet expectations, particularly in delivering on the party's promises and securing votes during the Lok Sabha elections. Ministers like Madhu Bangarappa, Rahim Khan, and even Laxmi Hebbalkar, who recently hinted at a reshuffle, could face changes in their portfolios or be replaced.

Financial considerations also play a crucial role in discussions about reshuffles. Recently, a senior minister met with Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge and general secretary Randeep Surjewala to express concerns about the financial burden imposed by the state’s guarantee schemes. The minister suggested limiting these schemes to below-poverty-line cardholders to ease the strain on the state’s finances. This suggested a growing unease within the party about the sustainability of these welfare programs.

With the governor’s decision on CM still pending and the party’s central leadership weighing its options, the next few months will be crucial in determining whether the Congress can regain its footing or continue to struggle under the weight of its internal and external challenges.