India to see a warmer November on account of strengthening El Nino

September and October were unseasonably warm in the northern plains this year. And it appears that this trend is likely to continue, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicting a warmer-than-usual November.

“We expect temperatures to remain above normal for most parts of the country except for some parts of Northwest India and Central India, where normal maximum temperatures are likely. Similarly, above-normal minimum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country. This is in line with the temperature rise the country has witnessed in October,” Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, IMD’s director general of meteorology, said at a media briefing.

He said the country, on average, saw temperatures rise by 0.96 degrees in October with the all-India average temperature for the month standing at the third highest since 1901 and the mean temperature coming in at the fifth highest since then.

The predictions, as per Mohapatra, are in line with trends witnessed when the warming of parts of the Pacific Ocean leads to the weather phenomenon called El Nino. “In El Nino years, temperatures become warmer. It happened in October and will happen in November as well,” he said.

Another reason for the high temperatures witnessed in Northwest India, he said, was the absence of the showers that usually occur at this time of the year.

“Rainfall over October in Northwest India remained highly random, as it has been during El Nino years, and we saw a deficiency of 32.6 percent,” he said.

However, the IMD has predicted a return to normal in November. “Monthly rainfall over the country as a whole during November is most likely to be normal (77-123 percent of Long Period Average),” the department said in a statement, adding that above-normal rainfall is likely over some areas of Southernmost parts of Peninsular India, most parts of Northwest India, many parts of East Central, East and Northeast India. Below-normal was expected over the rest of the country.

The northern parts especially Northwest India and West Central India are expected to see higher night temperatures “because of rainfall activity in the month of November and cloudiness adds to warmer nights”, the statement said.

Also read:Rice market braces for more stress as El Nino starts to bite

Late withdrawal of monsoon

The northwest monsoon withdrew on October 19 against the otherwise normal date of October 15. “While withdrawal of the monsoon normally starts on September 17, it started on the 25th this year,” Mohapatra said.

Rainfall during October was 50.8 mm, against the normal 75.4mm, a fall of 32.6 percent. While Northwest, East and Northeast India got good rainfall, the country as a whole saw deficiency, with the shortfall for Central India and South Peninsula being recorded at 60 percent. The monsoon this year spanned 134 days, against the normal 137 days.

Also, the northeast monsoon commenced over the South Peninsula on October 21, a day later than the normal date of October 20.

Two cyclones at a time is a rare phenomenon

The country’s weather pattern has also been affected by storm systems in the region. The formation of twin cyclones, Tej and Hamoon, over the North Indian Ocean //Isn’t one in the Arabian Sea and the other in the Bay of Bengal? Perhaps they fall under the ‘North Indian Ocean’// is a rare phenomenon, according to the IMD, and was last observed in 2019 when the Kyarr, Maha and Bulbul cyclones formed simultaneously. In 2018, Luban and Titli were formed and in 1977, a supercyclonic storm crossed the Andhra Pradesh coast and another the Tamil Nadu coast.

However, both Tej and Hamoon exhibited weakening prior to landfall, and both recurved. Neither made landfall in India.

El Nino to strengthen

IMD expects El Nino conditions to continue till spring next year or even early summer, along with the conditions of the Indian Ocean Dipole to weaken over December-March. However, El Nino is not expected to continue for the next monsoon, according to the department.

“As the changes in the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) conditions over the Pacific and the Indian Oceans are known to influence the Indian climate, IMD is carefully monitoring the evolution of sea surface conditions over these Ocean basins,” the IMD statement added.