How results of Haryana and J&K will shape Uttar Pradesh politics

BJP’s decision to appoint Nayab Singh Saini as Haryana C, is expected to have a significant impact on caste-based voter dynamics in UP.

The election results in Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir are set to have a profound impact on Uttar Pradesh (UP) politics, particularly as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) looks to regain its footing after setbacks in the Lok Sabha elections and unfavorable exit polls.

These results are expected to boost the BJP’s morale and provide much-needed momentum for the upcoming by-elections in UP.

At the same time, cracks within the opposition INDIA alliance—sparked by disputes over seat-sharing in Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir—are likely to strain the relationship between the Samajwadi Party (SP) and Congress in UP, weakening their united front ahead of critical electoral battles.

Political analysts believe the BJP’s unexpected victory in Haryana and strong performance in Jammu & Kashmir will reignite enthusiasm among its party workers, especially as they prepare for the byelections on 10 assembly seats in UP.

In the aftermath of the BJP’s Lok Sabha election losses, both government ministers and party workers had expressed concerns about the challenges ahead, including rising discontent over issues such as reservations and the Constitution.

With these recent wins, however, the BJP’s narrative has shifted. “The byelections will now be easier for the BJP,” analysts suggest, pointing to a renewed sense of confidence within the Yogi Adityanath government and its supporters.

The BJP had faced growing disenchantment among its workers but with its victories, the party now has renewed strength, which is expected to influence the upcoming assembly by-elections in UP.

“This victory will create a favorable atmosphere for the BJP, and previously inactive workers will become energised again,” Rajesh N Bajpyee, a political analyst predicts.

SP’s experiment fails; alliance friction grows

The Samajwadi Party, which had broken from the INDIA alliance in Jammu & Kashmir and fielded its own candidates to cut into the BJP’s vote share, saw its experiment fall flat. The results highlight Congress’s unwillingness to yield seats to the SP, even under pressure. In Haryana, Congress did not give a single seat to the SP, which has deepened the existing friction within the alliance.

According to Bajpayee the election results have weakened the INDI alliance in UP. Prior to these elections, the SP-Congress alliance had put psychological pressure on the BJP following their lead in the Lok Sabha elections.

“If Congress had won in these assembly elections, the INDI alliance could have continued weakening the BJP in UP,” he explained. “But with BJP’s third consecutive victory in Haryana, the alliance won’t be able to exert the same pressure.”

BJP’s decision to appoint Nayab Singh Saini as Chief Minister in Haryana, replacing Manohar Lal Khattar, is expected to have a significant impact on caste-based voter dynamics in UP. The Saini, Shakya, Maurya, and Kushwaha communities, which represent a large voter base in UP, are likely to rally behind the BJP following Saini’s success. With Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya hailing from this community, the election results are seen as a crucial step in mobilizing these castes in the BJP’s favour.

Analysts believe the outcome could weaken Congress’s bargaining power with the SP, casting doubt on its role in the upcoming by-elections for 10 crucial seats in UP. These elections are seen as a litmus test for the INDIA alliance, raising questions about Congress’s influence in the state.

A senior SP leader, speaking to this reporter, pointed out that the Haryana results clearly show Congress is rapidly losing its base. He called on Congress to drop its rigid stance on seat-sharing and accept the SP’s offer.

"The fact is, Congress doesn't have strong leaders to contest elections," the leader said. "Even in Jammu & Kashmir, while Congress claims victory, it actually won only 6 out of the 49 seats secured by the alliance. We’ve seen a similar situation in Uttar Pradesh."

Political analyst Rajesh N Bajpayee echoed this sentiment, noting that Congress has historically struggled to make a significant impact in UP. In the last state elections, Congress managed only six seats, largely because of its alliance with the SP. Without this partnership, the party risks fading into irrelevance in the state’s political landscape.

“The Haryana outcome is crucial because it highlights Congress’s diminishing ability to stand independently. With no government formed in Haryana, Congress has lost its bargaining power,” Bajpayee remarked.

With these results, the BJP finds itself rejuvenated and ready to take on the upcoming political challenges in UP, while the opposition’s INDIA alliance faces mounting internal strife.