Emkay Global Financial's research report on HCL Tech
HCL Tech’s revenue growth of 0.8% QoQ fell short of our estimates, while EBITM expansion of ~150bps was above our expectation. ER&D revenue grew by 5% CC QoQ (organic 1.6%) after two quarters of a sequential decline. It reported new bookings of ~USD4bn in Q2, its highest booking ever, driven by a mega deal (Verizon). Management has slashed FY24 revenue growth guidance to 5-6% CC YoY (earlier 6-8%), citing weak discretionary spending and lowerthan-expected performance in H1. Revised guidance implies revenue CQGR of 4.0-5.3% in H2, which management remains confident of achieving, considering the planned ramp-up in recent large deals (Verizon deal ramp-up w.e.f. November 1, 2023), software business seasonality, ongoing business momentum, and contribution from ASAP. Management has retained EBITM guidance of 18-19% for FY24.
Outlook
We tweak our FY24-26E EPS estimates (less than 1% change), factoring in Q2 performance and FY24 guidance revision. We maintain our BUY rating with a TP of Rs1,360 at 19x Sep-25E EPS.
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