Motilal Oswal's research report on Blue Dart Express
Blue Dart Express Ltd. (BDE) has announced price hikes ranging from 9% to 12%, effective Jan’25. This would help cover several inflationary costs and maintain its margin profile. With improved demand, BDE expects the price hike to be comfortably passed on to its customers. As the festival season kicks in, capacity utilization of its new aircraft is anticipated to pick up. As the aircraft reach optimal utilization levels, efficiency will improve, leading to higher margins. New routes, such as Guwahati, are starting to ramp up and should pick up pace in the coming quarters. BDE continues to expand in the surface express segment, which forms 30% of its total revenues. The surface express segment is likely to be a key growth driver for BDE as it is expected to grow faster than the air segment.
Outlook
Volumes are projected to improve with the onset of the festive season as the new aircraft are stabilizing and routes like Guwahati have been added to the network. EBITDA margin has started to expand as capacity utilization has improved and BDE has shifted some volumes from the third-party cargo to its own aircraft. We reiterate our BUY rating with a revised TP of INR9,900 (based on 21x FY27E EV/EBITDA).
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