Oil steady as market chews over OPEC+ output hike, supply glut fear

Geopolitical factors have kept a floor under prices, with conflict between Russia and Ukraine impacting energy assets and creating uncertainty over Russian crude supply.

Oil prices were steady on Tuesday, with sentiment toward a smaller-than-anticipated OPEC+ output hike dulled by weakening global demand and the potential for a supply glut.

Brent crude futures gained 1 cent, or 0.02%, to $65.48 a barrel by 0014 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was unchanged at $61.69 a barrel.

Both contracts settled more than 1% higher in the previous session.

"Crude oil prices gained after OPEC announced a smaller than expected production rise. The oil market has been anticipating a large rise in quotas for the group's members as they met to discuss their supply agreement over the weekend," ANZ analyst Daniel Hynes wrote in a note to clients.

"This staved off fears of an even bigger surplus than the one the market is anticipating in coming months."

On Sunday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and some smaller producers - known as OPEC+ - decided to increase its collective oil production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in November.

The group has increased its oil output targets by more than 2.7 million bpd this year, equating to about 2.5% of global demand.

Geopolitical factors have kept a floor under prices, with conflict between Russia and Ukraine impacting energy assets and creating uncertainty over Russian crude supply.

Russia's Kirishi oil refinery halted its most productive distillation unit, CDU-6, following a drone attack and subsequent fire on October 4, with its recovery likely to take about a month, two industry sources said on Monday.

Still, oil prices have come under pressure as investors see a likelihood of a supply surplus as output increases from both OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ producers. Moreover, any slowdown in demand due to weak economic growth triggered by U.S. trade tariffs is likely to exacerbate the surplus, analysts said.