Motilal Oswal's research report on BPCL
BPCL’s reported GRM came in 27% below our est. at USD12.5/bbl in 4QFY24, while implied marketing margin came in 67% above our est. at INR5.7/lit. Overall EBITDA was below our estimate due to weaker-thanexpected refining performance and impairment charge of INR18b in 4Q. Refining throughput stood at 10.4mmt vs. our estimate of 10mmt. Refining GRM was below our expectations but higher than HPCL (USD6.9/bbl) and IOC (USD8.4/bbl). In 4Q, Russian crude constituted ~40% of crude mix. Marketing sales volume (excluding exports) came in at 13.2mmt in 4Q (vs.12.9mmt in 3Q). OMCs are currently earnings a gross marketing margin of INR5/lit vs. our assumption of INR3.3/lit for both petrol/diesel.
Outlook
we maintain our Neutral rating with a TP of INR660, valuing the stock at 1.5x FY26E BV.
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