Wall Street futures indicate positive open, Barclays revises U.S. recession forecast

The S&P 500 surged 1.5 percent on Friday, lifting the index back above the level it held on April 2, the day Trump unveiled sweeping “reciprocal tariffs” aimed at punishing trade partners.

Wall Street stock futures saw a mild uptick in ahead of the trading session on Friday, May 16, after ending mixed in the previous session. Traders raised their bets that the Federal Reserve may deepen the monetary policy easing cycle after weak economic indicators showed a lacklustre economy.

As of 4.45 pm IST or 7.15 am ET,  Dow Jones Futures were up 120 points, or 0.3 percent, while S&P 500 Futures and Nasdaq 100 Futures each rose by 0.2 percent, adding 15 points and 45 points, respectively.

Wall Street has seen a sharp rebound over the past few sessions, supported by easing trade tensions between U.S. and China. The trading partners agreed to pause new tariff actions for 90 days, which eased investor concerns over global trade risks and their potential impact on economic growth.

In light of the trade ceasefire, Barclays has revised its U.S. economic outlook upward. The bank now projects GDP growth of 0.5 percent for 2025 and 1.6 percent for 2026, compared to earlier estimates of a 0.3 percent contraction and 1.5 percent growth, respectively.

Data released in the previous session showed weaker-than-expected retail sales and a decline in producer prices for April. This followed a softer consumer price report earlier in the week, reinforcing expectations that the Fed could lower interest rates at least twice before year-end.

However, despite this, the Federal Reserve Chair cautioned that interest rates could stay elevated for an extended period as the economy deals with ongoing uncertainty, fluctuating inflation, and continued supply disruptions.

In the commodities, currency and bond markets, oil is trading below $65 per barrel, gold is struggling to maintain the $3,200 mark, the 10-year Treasury yield stands at 4.4 percent, and the U.S. Dollar Index has slipped below the 101 level.

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