Trading Plan: Can Nifty 50 defend 24,800, Bank Nifty sustain above 56,000 amid Middle East tensions?

Nifty Trading Plan

The Nifty 50 corrected sharply intraday, but buying interest at lower levels helped pare half of the losses amid Middle East tensions on June 23. The index traded within the previous day’s range of 24,800–25,100, which is also expected to act as the range in the upcoming session. If the index breaks above 25,100, then 25,200 is the level to focus on. However, falling below 24,800 may drive the index down to 24,700, followed by 24,500 as a crucial support zone. For the Bank Nifty, 56,000 is expected to be a critical level for further direction. Sustaining above it could open doors to 56,500–57,000. However, holding below 56,000 may lead to consolidation, with support at the 55,400 zone, according to experts.

On June 23, the Nifty 50 corrected 141 points (0.56 percent) to 24,972, while the Bank Nifty declined 194 points (0.34 percent) to 56,059. The market breadth weakened, as about 1,408 shares declined compared to 1,216 advancing shares on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Jay Thakkar, Vice President & Head of Derivatives and Quant Research at ICICI Securities

The Nifty has been consolidating within a broader range of 24,500 to 25,250. Within this, the short-term range from the monthly expiry point of view is 24,250 to 24,750—a 500-point band. Options data suggests that Put writers have an upper hand, as the PCR (Put-Call Ratio) stands at 1, despite negative geopolitical news. This indicates the downside is protected as long as 24,750 holds.

The 25,000 strike has the highest Call and Put open interest, and the maximum pain point is also at this level. Therefore, the index is likely to remain positive above 25,000 and negative below it. Since negative news is being absorbed, unless 24,750 is broken before expiry, the short-term trend is expected to remain sideways to positive.

Key Resistance: 25,150, 25,250

Key Support: 24,750, 24,500

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures at the current market price and on dips near 24,850, with a stop-loss of 24,700, targeting 25,150 and 25,250.

Jigar S Patel, Senior Manager - Equity Research at Anand Rathi

On June 23, the Nifty plunged nearly 280 points intraday but staged a notable recovery from the 24,800 zone—coinciding with the June 20 low—highlighting strong demand at that level. Technically, the index continues to respect a bullish trendline originating from the June 9 low, reinforcing the presence of a well-established support zone. The daily RSI remains above the crucial 50 mark, reflecting underlying bullish momentum despite recent volatility.

Additionally, the FII Long-Short Ratio stood at an extremely low 24 percent as of June 20—a contrarian indicator that often precedes short-covering-led rallies. This confluence of strong technical support, steady momentum, and pessimistic sentiment positioning hints at a potential short-term upside in the sessions ahead.

Key Resistance: 25,100, 25,200

Key Ssupport: 24,800, 24,700

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures in the 24,850–24,950 zone, with a stop-loss of 24,700, targeting 25,300.

Vidnyan S Sawant, Head of Research at GEPL Capital

In the past week, the Nifty closed above the 25,100 mark, reinforcing the underlying market strength. However, the index has been in a consolidation phase for the last five weeks, with significant resistance near the 25,250 level. This ongoing consolidation is forming a horizontal channel on the daily chart—a healthy pause following a sharp recovery. The lower boundary of this channel, around 24,450, has consistently attracted strong buying interest. On the upside, 25,250 continues to act as a supply zone, temporarily capping further advances.

From a technical perspective, key indicators remain supportive of the bullish bias. The RSI is trending above the 55 level and is gradually rising across multiple timeframes, indicating sustained positive momentum. Furthermore, the index is trading well above its 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is acting as dynamic support—underlining the strength of the ongoing trend. Overall, while the index remains in consolidation, the broader structure continues to look positive. A breakout above the 25,250 resistance zone could signal a fresh leg of the uptrend.

Key Resistance: 25,250, 25,800

Key Support: 24,700, 24,450

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on dips near 24,700, targeting 25,250 and 25,550, with a stop-loss of 24,450.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Jay Thakkar, Vice President & Head of Derivatives and Quant Research at ICICI Securities

Bank Nifty has managed to hold the 56,000 level, and options data also suggests that unless this level is broken, the short-term bias will remain sideways to positive. The current PCR stands at 0.86, following aggressive Call writing in the last session. However, the index still manages to hold on to its maximum pain and modified maximum pain levels, suggesting that the short-term trend remains sideways to positive.

Below 56,000, the next crucial support is at 55,475. If that level is broken, the trend could shift from up to down. Until then, the short-term trend remains constructive.

Key Resistance: 56,400, 57,000

Key Support: 55,475, 55,000

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures at the current market price and on dips near 55,700, with a stop-loss of 55,450, targeting 56,500 and 57,000.

Jigar S Patel, Senior Manager - Equity Research at Anand Rathi

On June 23, Bank Nifty found support near Friday’s mid-range around 55,780, which also aligned with the S1 daily floor pivot. This triggered a recovery, helping the index close just above the 56,000 mark. A noteworthy technical development is the formation of an inside value relationship between the May and June Camarilla pivots (R3 & S3), with June's range nested within May’s. Historically, such structures often precede sharp directional moves.

Further strengthening the bullish case, the daily RSI continues to hold above the key 50 level, reflecting sustained momentum. The alignment of structural support and favourable momentum suggests Bank Nifty could be poised for a short-term upside breakout.

Key Resistance: 56,500, 56,600

Key Support: 55,800, 55,600

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures in the 56,000–56,050 zone, with a stop-loss of 55,600, targeting 57,000.

Vidnyan S Sawant, Head of Research at GEPL Capital

On the daily chart, Bank Nifty has maintained its position above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) and successfully closed above the 56,000 mark, reaffirming the bullish structure. Moreover, the index remains well above its 20-, 50-, and 100-day EMAs, indicating strength across short-, medium-, and long-term trends. Supporting this positive setup, the MACD indicator is gradually rising, reflecting a steady buildup in buying momentum.

Taken together, these technical factors suggest that Bank Nifty remains firmly entrenched in a strong uptrend. While near-term caution is warranted due to the candlestick formation, any dips are likely to find support and attract fresh buying interest—unless there is a decisive breakdown below key support levels.

Key Resistance: 57,700, 58,500

Key Support: 55,500, 54,500

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty at CMP for targets of 57,700 and 58,500, with a stop-loss of 55,500.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.