Technical View: Bulls support continues, crossing 26,000 crucial for Nifty to break October high; Bank Nifty hits new record high

Nifty Outlook for November 14

The Nifty 50 hit the psychological 26,000 mark but could not hold on to it due to profit booking, which resulted in the index ending the volatile session flat with a positive bias, continuing its higher-high formation for the fourth straight session. The index sustained well above all key moving averages, with short-term moving averages trending upward, signaling a positive trend.

Further, the RSI, at 61.36, showed a positive crossover, and the Stochastic RSI maintained its bullish crossover. The MACD has also been gradually closing the gap with the reference line by trending upward, while the weakness in the histogram has consistently been fading since the start of the week. All these indicators point to a healthy trend ahead.

Hence, the Nifty 50 is likely to march toward the 26,000–26,100 zone, but as long as it trades below this resistance, consolidation may continue with support at 25,800–25,700, according to experts.

The index gained strength after an initial hour of volatility and hit an intraday high of 26,011, but failed to sustain this level due to profit booking in the last hour of trade. It finished the session at 25,879, up 3.4 points, and formed a small-bodied bearish candle with long upper and lower shadows, resembling a high-wave or Doji-type pattern on the daily charts, signaling choppy and indecisive trade ahead of the Bihar election results.

According to Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, the technical setup, however, remains intact, with the index comfortably placed above the 21EMA (around 25,600).

"An extension of today’s volatility is expected on Friday. Technically, immediate resistance is placed at 26,000; a decisive move above this level might trigger a rally towards 26,200/26,350," he said, adding that immediate support is placed at 25,800, below which the current rally might lose some steam.

The weekly options data also indicated that the Nifty 50 is likely to face resistance at 26,000–26,200, with support at 25,800 in the short term.

The 26,000 strike continued to attract maximum Call open interest, followed by the 26,500 and 26,200 strikes, with maximum Call writing at the 26,500, 26,000, and 26,200 strikes. Meanwhile, the maximum Put open interest was seen at the 25,500 strike, followed by the 25,800 and 25,900 strikes, with maximum Put writing at the 25,500, 25,900, and 25,300 strikes.

Bank Nifty

The Bank Nifty moved close to the upper Bollinger Band and hit a new intraday record high of 58,616. The index stayed above the falling trendline, which was earlier a resistance and now acts as a support.

The banking index formed a bullish candle with an upper shadow on the daily timeframe, signaling supply near record-high levels. It also continued its higher-high formation for the fifth consecutive session, closing 107 points higher at 58,382.

"The 58,500–58,600 zone remains a critical resistance, and a sustained breakout above 58,600 could drive the index toward the 59,000 level in the short term," said Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

Conversely, the 57,900–57,800 zone will serve as immediate support. A breach below 57,800 could extend the decline toward 57,400, he added.

Meanwhile, the India VIX, the fear index, sustained below the 10-day EMA for another session. The index rose 0.43 percent to 12.16 but stayed well below the 13 zone, which remains comfortable for bulls.

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