Closing Bell: Nifty ends near 22,400 in special trading session; Sensex closes with minor gains

Domestic equities surged to a new high after India's Q3 GDP saw an impressive growth rate of 8.4% driven by robust manufacturing, highlighting the inherent strength and potential of our economy. We expect ongoing momentum to continue while taking cues from a fresh set of economic data next week. For next week sectors to be in focus Auto on the back of better-than-expected monthly sales numbers. Cement and Metals are also expected to be in focus on the back of stronger economic growth, while defence and solar sectors on account of improved order visibility.

Global markets have faced a variety of challenges, including concerns over short-term inflationary pressures and their implications for central bank policies, and despite expectations of Federal Reserve rate adjustments, market sentiment remains cautious, influenced by unsettling inflation data from the US and the European Central Bank's cautious stance on policy easing.

In Asia, divergent economic conditions, with Japan slipping into a technical recession and China grappling with deflationary trends, has impacted global equity markets. While the MSCI World index saw a modest uptick in February, the MSCI Emerging Markets index outperformed, driven by notable gains in China and Hong Kong. However, India's performance, though showing a slight increase in USD terms, has relatively underperformed compared to its EM peers.

Shifting focus to India Inc.'s performance in the last quarter, overall performance has been largely in line with expectations. Specifically, there has been a convergence of EBITDA with the top line, while PAT has held up relatively well. Looking ahead, the earnings outlook for India Inc. remains satisfactory despite the headwinds of global growth and moderate rural demand. However, there may be a short-term impact on earnings due to the slowdown associated with elections. However, markets have responded positively to the robust earnings growth observed recently. As margins-led tailwinds diminish, earnings will need to be driven by improvements in revenue growth, sustained higher and secular growth will be the differentiating factor in the future.

"For February FPIs have turned buyers in equity for Rs 1,539 crore. This is despite the U.S. bond yields ruling high with the 10-year yield at around 4.25%. FPIs may again turn sellers in some of the coming days. But they are unlikely to sell aggressively because their selling is not having any impact on the market which is setting new record highs. FPIs will have to buy the same shares, which they are selling now, at higher prices when the situation turns favourable for FPI buying. Therefore, even if they sell in the coming days, that will be subdued selling. It is important to understand the fact that the DIIs, HNIs and retail investors are calling the shots now, not FPIs.

FPIs were big sellers in financials and FMCG in February. FPIs are steadily increasing their buying in debt. They have bought debt to the tune of Rs 22,419 crore in February on top of the Rs 19,836 crore they bought in January. This trend of steady debt investment is likely to continue."

The Sensex was 60.80 points or 0.08 percent higher at 73,806.15, and the Nifty was up 37.50 points or 0.17 percent at 22,376.30. About 2,277 shares rose, 867 declined, and 85 were unchanged.

Rajesh Bhosale, technical analyst at Angel One, recommends adopting a "Buy on dip" strategy and focusing on individual stocks that will yield better returns.

"Key levels to monitor would be 22,250 and 22,150 as immediate support levels. Additionally, the level of 21,850 has gained significant support after being defended for two consecutive Thursdays, suggesting that any major weakness would likely only occur if this level is breached,” said Bhosale.

Paytm fell over 1 percent on March 2, a day after the Financial Intelligence Unit-India imposed a penalty of Rs 5.49 crore on Paytm Payments Bank for violating money laundering norms.

In a statement, Paytm Payments Bank said that “The penalty pertains to issues within a business segment that was discontinued two years ago. Following that period, the bank has enhanced its monitoring systems and reporting mechanisms to the Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU).” This announcement came after Paytm's board announced the discontinuation of several inter-company agreements with Paytm Payments Bank.

The is the latest move as a result of ongoing regulatory action against the payments bank by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). On January 31, the RBI imposed major business restrictions on the Paytm payments bank citing prolonged history of non-compliance by the Paytm promoters. These include violations such as KYC, AML norms.

Cipla stock gained 1.43 percent on March 2, just Rs 2 away from the 52-week high, it hit on March 1. United States Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) conducted a pre-approved inspection at the manufacturing facility of subsidiary Cipla (Jiangsu) Pharmaceutical in Qidong, Jiangsu Province, China, from February 26 to March 1. The inspection concluded with zero Form 483 observations.

In a separate filing, the company informed bourses that it has completed the transfer of the generics business. “The Company has completed the transfer of Generics Business Undertaking as a going concern on a slump sale basis to Cipla Pharma and Life Sciences Limited, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Company on 1st March 2024,” Cipla said.

Giving the rationale behind its decision, the company had earlier said that the transaction would help in capitalising on this high-growth potential business by increasing investments in new launches, deepening penetration in Tier 2-6 towns/cities and improving patient access through high-quality Generic medicines.

The Sensex was up 31.23 points or 0.04 percent at 73,891.49, and the Nifty was up 6.90 points or 0.03 percent at 22,401.90. About 2161 shares advanced, 798 shares declined, and 79 shares unchanged.

The Sensex was down 81.12 points or 0.11 percent at 73,779.14, and the Nifty was up 2.00 points or 0.01 percent at 22,397.00 in the second pre-opening session.

According to a technical analyst at Nuvama, Bank Nifty is now poised to target 49,500 and 50,600 after the technical charts reveal a Morning Star pattern. Bank Nifty has formed a Multiple Inside Candle formation on the monthly charts, indicating compression and often leading to a trend move on a breakout.

As per Manav Chopra, a technical analyst at Nuvama: "Bank Nifty has formed a Morning Star pattern, indicating a bullish undertone. A bullish breakout above the close of 47,100 will establish a bullish trend and indicate targets of 49,500-50,600, coinciding with the resistance of the rising channel."

"Bank Nifty has formed several lower shadows at the support of the rising channel, indicating a demand zone around the 46,000-45,000 levels. A bullish breakout above the close of 47,100 will establish a bullish trend and indicate targets of 49,500-50,600, coinciding with the resistance of the rising channel," added Chopra. Read More

Shrey Jain, Founder and CEO discount broker SAS Online, said, “Tomorrow's special live trading session holds significance, with the Nifty's projected target aligned at 22,640, while 22,200 stands firm as a robust support level. Any retracement towards this support zone is perceived as an opportune moment for buyers.”

Rohan Shah, Technical Analyst at Religare Broking said that it is advised to be risk averse. We are advising clients to stay light and are also following a buy-on-dips strategy. "Any dip on 22,200 can be a good buying opportunity and around 23,400 on the higher side," he said.

"The short-term trend of Nifty remains positive, and the sharp upside breakout of Friday is expected to continue in the coming sessions. The next upside targets to be watched around 22500-22600 levels."

At the first close, the Sensex was up 114.91 points or 0.16 percent at 73,860.26, and the Nifty was up 56.20 points or 0.25 percent at 22,395.00. About 2,161 shares rose, 798 fell, and 79 were unchanged.

Shares of InfoEdge were down over 2 percent on March 2 after the company's apps were removed from Google's Play Store. Info Edge said mobile applications have been removed from the Google Play Store by Google, including Naukri.com, 99acres and Shiksha. The action was taken by Google without giving due and sufficient notice to the company.

At the onset of a week laden with economic data releases, investor sentiment appeared cautious. However, indices surged in the final session, propelled by stellar Indian GDP figures and a healthy performance in the Indian manufacturing sector as output and new order picks up. While robust economic data boosted confidence in the Indian economy, concerns lingered regarding the RBI's policy decisions amidst high liquidity and inflation worries. On the global front, in-line US personal consumption expenditure data and benign Euro zone inflation may influence global central banks to take a dovish view on interest rates. US bond yields dipped after the inflation data release, also supporting the equity market.

Banking stocks reversed initial weakness to perform well on the back of an improved economic outlook, while weakness persisted in the IT and pharma sectors, which are more closely tied to the global economy. The release of additional data from the US, such as PMI and payroll data, along with inflation data from China, may influence market dynamics moving forward. Corrections in mid- and small caps are underway and expected to continue, with regulators urging disclosure of associated risks to AMCs.

Shares of Aurobindo Pharma rose 2 percent in trade after the company received the final approval from the US Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) to manufacture and market Fingolimod capsules, 0.5 mg, which are bioequivalent and therapeutically equivalent to the reference listed drug (RLD), Gilenya Capsules, of Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation. The product will be launched in March 2024. Fingolimod capsules are indicated for the treatment of patients of multiple sclerosis.

Hero Motocorp shares jumped 2 percent to Rs 4,577.45 on March 2 after the company published its February sales figures. The country’s largest manufacturer of motorcycles and scooters sold 468,410 units last month, a 19 percent growth over the 394,460 units sold in the year-ago period.

Further, the company said that it is scaling up the volumes of Harley-Davidson X440 and Mavrick 440, the first phase of which should be completed by the middle of this year.

The company sold 433,598 units in January 2024, registering 22 percent growth over January 2023, when it sold 356,690 units. Exports in the month were at 12,664 units against 7,253 units in the same month last year.

The Sensex was up 165.57 points or 0.22 percent at 73,910.92, and the Nifty was up 47.80 points or 0.21 percent at 22,386.60. Both the indices hit a new record highs of 73982.12 and 22420.25, respectively, soon after market opened. About 1,346 shares rose, 435 fell, and 78 were unchanged.

The Sensex was up 102.62 points or 0.14 percent at 73,847.97, and the Nifty was up 67.20 points or 0.30 percent, topping the 22,400-mark for the first time.

Markets surged strongly on Friday and reclaimed the record high. After the initial uptick, Nifty moved from strength to strength as the day progressed and finally settled around the day’s high to close at 22,338.75; up by 1.6%. The majority of sectors contributed to the move wherein metal, banking and auto posted strong gains. However, the broader indices underperformed the benchmark but managed to end with modest gains.

We are eyeing 22,800 in Nifty now thus participants should continue with a “buy on dips” approach until it breaks 21,900. We feel the participation of the banking pack would continue to play a critical role in maintaining the prevailing momentum while others may play a supportive part on a rotational basis. Traders should maintain stock-specific approach and prefer index majors and large midcap counters for long trades.

Oil prices settled higher and posted weekly gains as traders awaited an OPEC+ decision on supply agreements for the second quarter while they weighed U.S., European and Chinese economic data.

The dollar fell against the euro on weaker-than-expected US economic data but gained against the Japanese yen after Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda said it was too soon to declare victory on inflation.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, fell 0.2% at 103.91, with the euro up 0.28% at $1.0833.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net bought shares worth Rs 128.94 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) purchased Rs 3,814.53 crore worth of stocks on March 1, provisional data from the NSE showed.

U.S. Treasuries yields fell sharply including two-year yields' biggest daily decline since the end of January after the manufacturing data and Waller's suggestion of the need for more shorter-dated Treasuries.

The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, fell 11.1 basis points to 4.5354%, from 4.646% late on Thursday.

The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell 6.6 basis points to 4.186%, from 4.252% while the 30-year bond yield fell 4.7 basis points to 4.3285% from 4.375% late on Thursday.

Nvidia's stock market value closed above $2 trillion for the first time on Friday after an upbeat report from Dell Technologies reignited Wall Street's AI-fueled rally.

Nvidia's stock added 4% after Dell, which sells high-end servers made with Nvidia's processors, gave an upbeat forecast late on Thursday, pointing to a surge in orders for its AI-optimized servers.

Dell's shares soared as much as 38% to a record high before ending the session with a 32% gain.

Friday's rally put Nvidia's market capitalization at $2.06 trillion, making it Wall Street's third most valuable company behind Microsoft and Apple, at $3.09 trillion and $2.77 trillion, respectively

The Nasdaq Composite reached a new high on Friday, surpassing its 2021 record. Investors believed that mega-cap technology stocks were the best way to play the slowing inflation and the upcoming boom in artificial intelligence.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq rose by 1.14% to 16,274.94, hitting a new high of 16,302.24 during the session. The index closed at its first record since November 2021 the day before. The S&P 500 also gained 0.80% to 5,137.08 for its first close above the 5,100 threshold. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 90.99 points, or 0.23%, to 39,087.38.

Nvidia, the chipmaking giant that has led the tech rally by surging more than 260% over the last 12 months, gained another 4% on Friday. Meta also jumped more than 2% for the day.

Trends in the GIFT Nifty indicate a positive start for the broader index in India, with a gain of 60 points or 0.27 percent. The Nifty futures were trading around the 22,511 level.

Indian equity benchmarks the Sensex and the Nifty hit fresh record highs on March 1 on better-than-expected GDP data, improved auto sales number and in-line US Inflation figures, keeping hopes of a rate cut alive.

The latest quarterly GDP growth rate is the highest in six quarters, grew 8.4 percent in the December quarter, data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation on February 29. Last time India's economy grew at a faster rate was in the first quarter of 2022-23, when it grew by 13.1 percent.

The Nifty started March series on a positive note and extended the gains as the day progressed, hitting a record high by crossing 22,300 for the first time.

At close, the Sensex was up 1,245.05 points, or 1.72 percent, at 73,745.35, and the Nifty was up 356.00 points, or 1.62 percent, at 22,338.80. Their best closing, so far.