Closing Bell: Nifty ends around 17,850, Sensex falls 311 pts dragged by oil & gas, bank & metals

Jatin Gedia, Technical Research Analyst, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas

The Nifty opened on a flat note and as the day progressed the selling pressure intensified and the Nifty closed in the negative down ~100 points for the day. On the daily charts, the Nifty has come back within the downward sloping channel from which it broke during the last week. On the hourly charts we can observe that the Nifty has closed below the key hourly moving averages which is a sign of weakness in the short term.

Prices are moving along the hourly lower Bollinger band which is expanding indicating that the fall is likely to continue. Thus, considering the above parameters we change our short-term outlook on the Nifty to sideways.

The range of consolidation is likely to be 18,150 – 17,650. In terms of levels, 17,920 – 17,970 shall act as immediate hurdle, while on the downside the 17,650 – 17,600 which convinces with the 61.82% fibonacci retracement level shall act as a crucial support to watch out for form short term perspective.

Kunal Shah, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

The Bank Nifty bears continued to attack at the higher levels and the index witnessed selling pressure throughout the day. The trend remains negative and one should keep a sell-on-rise approach as long the index stays below the level of 41,500 where the highest open interest is built up on the call side.

The next support is visible at 40,000 where some amount of put writing is visible.

Ajit Mishra, VP - Technical Research, Religare Broking

Markets started the week on a subdued note and lost over half a percent, in continuation of the recent fall. After the initial uptick, the Nifty index gradually drifted lower as the day progressed and settled closer to the day’s low.

The continuous pressure in the banking and financials pack combined with a downtick in the energy majors kept the tone negative. Meanwhile, the broader indices traded mixed and ended flat to marginally lower.

The underperformance of the banking and financial majors is largely weighing on sentiment, in absence of any major event. And, indications are pointing towards more pain in banking however resilience in the IT, auto and select FMCG heavyweights may cap the damage.

Besides, the upcoming monthly expiry of the February month derivatives contract would further add to the choppiness.

Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities

Drubbing in banking stocks dragged down the markets today, which languished in the negative territory for major part of the trading session. Factors such as more pain going ahead through further rate hikes, rising inflation, and the recent Adani saga continue to weigh on investors' minds.

Also, Indian stocks are still expensive compared to China, and hence investors are taking this opportunity to curb their holdings. Technically, a bearish candle on daily charts is indicating further weakness from the current levels.

However, the Nifty is trading near the 20-day SMA and Sensex is trading near the important support level of 60,600. If the index succeeds to trade above 17,900, a quick pullback rally is not ruled out. Above which, it could move up to 18,000-18,125. On the flip side, a fresh selloff is possible only after the dismissal of 17,800 and below the same the index could slip till 17,730-17,700.

Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services

Stocks are getting beaten ahead of the release of Fed minutes on Wednesday. Maintaining its guard against inflation, the Fed is expected to remain hawkish. As expected, it is unlikely to have a dire effect on the global stock market. However, the consequence of constant high interest rates is causing a slowdown in demand & the earnings outlook, hence the near-term trend will be cautious.

Rupee Close:

Indian rupee ended higher at 82.73 per dollar against previous close of 82.83.

January Aviation Data

Domestic airline traffic rose 95.7% YoY, while down 1.6% MoM at 12.5 million
IndiGo market share stood at 54.6% against 54.9% and SpiceJet market share at 7.3% versus 7.6%, MoM
Vistara market share at 8.8% versus 9.2%, while Air India market share unchanged at 9.2%, MoM

Market Close

Benchmark indices ended lower on February 20 amid selling across sectors barring auto and IT names.

At Close, the Sensex was down 311.03 points or 0.51% at 60,691.54, and the Nifty was down 99.60 points or 0.56% at 17,844.60. About 1370 shares have advanced, 2118 shares declined, and 155 shares are unchanged.

Cipla, Adani Enterprises, Britannia Industries, BPCL and UPL were among top Nifty losers, while gainers were Divis Laboratories, UltraTech Cement, Tech Mahindra, Hindalco Industries and Power Grid Corporation.

Except auto and IT, all other sectoral indices ended in the red.

The BSE midcap and smallcap ended on flat note.

Morgan Stanley View On Shriram Finance

-Overweight rating, target at Rs 1,580 per share
-Fundamentals are tracking well & Q3 surprised
-Raise forecasts sharply
-However, impute a higher stock supply discount
-Valuation discount to historical mean & to peers has widened
-Stock should see a sharp rally post supply-overhang though timing uncertain

Shriram Finance was quoting at Rs 1,235.05, up Rs 1.35, or 0.11 percent on the BSE.

Jefferies View On Samvardhana Motherson International

-Hold rating, target at Rs 70 per share
-Acquires 100% stake in SAS Autosystemtechnik
-SAS is a global provider of cockpit module assembly & logistics services to auto OEMs
-SAS has a diversified geographical & OEM exposure, strong presence in premium vehicles
-SAS is a decent-sized acquisition & can, prima facie, add 10-15% to company’s rev & EBITDA
-Transaction multiple of 5.3x CY22 EV/EBITDA also seems reasonable

On the BSE 500:

Dollar edges lower from six-week peak, eyes on Fed

The dollar edged lower on Monday but remained close to Friday's six-week high, as a recent flurry of positive economic data reinforced market expectations of tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures it against six other major currencies, slipped 0.14% to 103.83, though is up almost 1.8% for the month, keeping it on track for its first monthly gain since last September. It hit a six-week high of 104.67 on Friday.

Market at 3 PM

The Sensex was down 276.60 points or 0.45% at 60,725.97, and the Nifty was down 84.70 points or 0.47% at 17,859.50. About 1289 shares have advanced, 2029 shares declined, and 142 shares are unchanged.

Saumil Gandhi, Senior Analyst - Commodities, HDFC Securities

Crude Oil prices traded up with benchmark NYMEX WTI crude oil were trading up by 0.80% at $77.17 per barrel. Crude oil prices declined last week as eased of supply concern and fear of slowing demand on back of expectation that the Federal Reserve might keep raising interest rates at aggressive pace.

In short term crude oil market are well supplied, however long-term market optimistic about demand recovery. The International Energy Agency's prediction that oil demand will rise by 2 million bpd in 2023, up 100,000 bpd from last month's forecast to a record 101.9 million bpd, with China making up 900,000 bpd of the increase.

We expect Crude oil prices will face selling pressure on higher levels as weak fundamentals. Technically, Crude oil prices consolidated with range of $70 to $81.0 last few weeks and same trend will likely to see this week. MCX Crude Oil Mar future has strong support at Rs 6080 and resistance at Rs 6540 for this week.

BEML board appoints Shantanu Roy as Director

BEML board members have approved appointment of Shantanu Roy, as Director for mining & construction business) for five years.

BEML was quoting at Rs 1,400.25, down Rs 29.30, or 2.05 percent.

HG Infra Engineering receives provisional completion certificate for project in Rajasthan

HG Infra Engineering has received the provisional completion certificate for project in Rajasthan.

The road project, which comprises an upgradation to two lane with paved shoulder from Kundal to Jhadol in Rajasthan, has been provisionally declared fit for entry into operation on August 24, 2021.

HG Infra Engineering Ltd. was quoting at Rs 751.75, down Rs 13.05, or 1.71 percent on the BSE.

ICICI Securities view on Metropolis

MC A10 Index continues to be down. Among Adani Group stocks, Adani Power is an outlier which rose after the company scrapped a deal to buy power plan.

Nomura View On Fortis Healthcare:

-Buy rating, target at Rs 325 per share
-Positive traction in hospital business, with scope for further improvement
-Growth in diagnostics weak
-Company making investment towards tech upgrades, brownfield expansion & collection network
-Expect these initiatives to help improve growth & bridge gap with peers to an extent

Engineers India signs MoU with Munitions India for plant modernisation and infra projects

European Markets Updates

Indian steel industry: Tapered now, tempered for future, thanks to changing dynamics

Tata Motors signs MoU with Uber India for 25,000 XPRES-T EVs for Uber’s premium category

Market update at 2 PM

Sensex was down 247.36 points or 0.41% at 60,755.21, and the Nifty shed 86.10 points or 0.48% at 17,858.10.

On BSE 500

Supreme Industries commences commercial production at 28th unit at Cuttack

Supreme Industries has commenced commercial production at its 28th unit at Cuttack in Odisha, with initial capacity of 16,800 MT per annum with a capex of Rs 90 crore.

The said capacity would increase to 43,200 MT per annum by first quarter of FY24, taking the total capex at the unit to Rs 125 crore. The company expects to penetrate plastic piping products market in Eastern India, where it enjoys good market share.

United Breweries in focus

Rishi Pardal has tendered his resignation as Managing Director & CEO of United Breweries and accordingly his 6 months' notice period has commenced. Rishi Pardal is not related to any director on the board of the company.

United Breweries was quoting at Rs 1,473.50, down Rs 1.70, or 0.12 percent.

Asahi India Glass gets board approval for appointment of Nisheeta Labroo as additional director

Asahi India Glass' board members have approved appointment of Nisheeta Labroo as an Additional Director of the company to hold the position as non-executive director of the company.

Asahi India Glass was quoting at Rs 514.35, up Rs 0.80, or 0.16 percent.

On BSE:

On BSE:

Telecom stocks in focus as Jefferies expects revenue growth to moderate without tariff hike

JPMorgan View On Cipla:

JPMorgan has given Cipla an 'overweight' rating with a target of Rs 1,210 per share. The company has not commented on the nature of 8 observations received from USFDA for Pithampur plant, it noted.

The said plant is one of Cipla's key manufacturing facilities, along with the Goa and Invagen plant in the US. Advair, one of Cipla's complex launches, is filed from the Pithampur plant.

JPMorgan will be closely monitoring any potential impact on launch timelines. Cipla was quoting at Rs 962.95, down Rs 62.85, or 6.13 percent on the BSE.

Market at 1 PM

Benchmark indices were trading lower with Nifty below 17,900.

The Sensex was down 137.48 points or 0.23% at 60,865.09, and the Nifty was down 53.10 points or 0.30% at 17,891.10. About 1397 shares have advanced, 1838 shares declined, and 154 shares are unchanged.

On BSE Sensex

Crisil gains after strong Q4 results

CRISIL has recorded 6.3% year-on-year decline in consolidated profit at Rs 158.02 crore for quarter ended December 2022 due to high base.

In Q4CY22, the profit was inflated by exceptional gain of Rs 45.82 crore due to profit on sale of immovable property.

Consolidated revenue from operations grew by 16.5% YoY to Rs 822.3 crore for the quarter. At the operating level, EBITDA grew by 12.3% YoY to Rs 216.2 crore but margin fell 98 bps YoY due to higher employee cost and other expenses.

Seacoast Shipping Services signs new business contract with Maria Shipping Fze., Dubai

The contract is for providing the Shipping and Logistic Services at Dubai and will be effective from April 1st, 2023 for a period of one year and can be renewed further.

Seacoast Shipping Services was quoting at Rs 3.49, up Rs 0.08, or 2.35 percent on the BSE.

Pennar Industries hits 52-week high

Shares of Pennar Industries surged on February 20, following the announcement that the company had won multiple orders accumulating to Rs 851 crore.

The stock also tested a 52-week high of Rs 78.70 earlier in the day.

The orders were secured across various verticals, including Ascent Buildings (USA), pre-engineered buildings, industrial components, railways, tubes and steel. Ascent Buildings, USA, is a step-down subsidiary of Pennar Industries.

Alert | Axis Bank hikes lending rates by 10 bps across tenures

On NSE:

Nifty Bank index fell 0.4 percent dragged by AU Small Finance Bank, IDFC First Bank, SBI

Crayons Advertising files DRHP with NSE Emerge

Crayons Advertising today announced the filing of its Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) with NSE Emerge for its initial public offering.

The company plans to offer 64.30 lakh equity shares of face value Rs 10 each through the book-building process.

Corporate Capital Ventures is the book-running lead manager to the issue. While Skyline Financial Services is Registrar to the issue.

Dollar steady

The dollar was on the front foot on Monday, supported by a strong run of economic data out of the United States that traders bet will keep the Federal Reserve on its monetary policy tightening path for longer than initially expected.

The greenback firmed slightly against most major currencies in Asia trade, sending sterling 0.06% lower to $1.2035. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar stood near a roughly two-month high at 134.11.

The Aussie rose 0.17% to $0.6890, having fallen close to 0.6% last week.

Oil Price Rises

Oil prices rose on Monday amid optimism over China's demand recovery, concerns that underinvestment will crimp future oil supply and as major producers keep output limits in place.

Brent crude rose 47 cents, or 0.6%, to $83.47 a barrel by 0445 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for March, which expires on Tuesday, was at $76.78 a barrel, up 44 cents or 0.6%. The more active April contract was up 0.5% at $76.90.

The benchmarks settled down $2 a barrel on Friday, and closed lower by about 4% last week after the United States reported higher crude and gasoline inventories.

Market at 12 PM

Benchmark indices were trading flat in the volatile session.

The Sensex was down 0.10 points or 0.00% at 61002.47, and the Nifty was down 17.70 points or 0.10% at 17926.50. About 1422 shares have advanced, 1755 shares declined, and 163 shares are unchanged.

KRChoksey View on Nestle India

Nestle India has continued to see broad based growth across categories and town classes. While Q4CY22 has seen some reduction in the revenue growth rates in some town classes, it has continued to be positive in all the regions and is expected to bounce back.

Nestle has seen a sequential improvement in EBITDA margin for the last 2 quarters, despite pressure on tonnage in Q4CY22. Company is seeing the benefit of premiumization which is helping the margins in a time when the smaller units are seeing volume pressure.

The broking firm likes company for its focus on penetration-led growth led by increasing distribution, especially in RURBAN.It expects Revenue/ EBITDA/ Adj. PAT to grow at a CAGR of 10.8%/ 18.2%/ 18.6%, respectively over CY22-CY24E.

Nestle India was quoting at Rs 18,912, down Rs 96.95, or 0.51 percent on the BSE.

Ravindra Rao, CMT, EPAT, VP- Head Commodity Research at Kotak Securities

WTI Crude oil plunged almost 4% in the previous week and closed at $76.55 per bbl, as investors weighed hawkish signals from Fed officials. Prospects of further rate hikes from the US Federal Reserve raised fresh concerns on global economic outlook and oil demand.

The latest EIA report showed that US crude inventories jumped by 16.283 million barrels to 842.973 million in the week ended 10th February, the highest level since early October.

Prices were also under pressure after the Biden Administration’s announcement to release 26 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves. Even though IEA and OPEC raised Chinese demand forecasts for 2023, investors are waiting for clear signs of demand recovery from the world’s largest oil importer.

Marico board meet on February 27 to consider dividend

Marico said that the board members on February 27 will consider a proposal for declaration of interim equity dividend, if any, for the financial year 2022-23.

Marico was quoting at Rs 488.70, down Rs 0.55, or 0.11 percent on the BSE.

Nifty PSU Bank index down 0.5 percent dragged by Punjab and Sind Bank, UCO Bank, J&K Bank