Dalal Street This Week: Q2 Earnings, inflation, FII flow, India-US trade deal progress among 10 key factors to watch

The mood at the primary market remains strong as investors will see seven new public issues for subscription. The total fundraising by them was more than Rs 11,000 crore in the current week.

The market closed last week (ended November 7) on a weak note amid the lack of domestic triggers and FII outflow, falling nearly 0.9 percent amid consolidation. PSU banks remained strong following healthy financial performance, and renewed speculation regarding a potential FDI cap hike and sector consolidation, whereas weak global cues and fading expectations of a Fed rate cut in the December meeting weighed down metal and IT stocks.

In the week starting November 10, the market is expected to be range-bound with focus on the final lot of corporate earnings season, and further progress with respect to the India-US trade deal.

The Nifty 50 fell 230 points to close the week at 25,492, and the BSE Sensex declined 722 points to 83,216, while the Nifty Midcap 100 index was flat and the Nifty Smallcap 100 index dropped 1.66 percent.

This week, Siddhartha Khemka - Head of Research, Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services expects the markets to remain range-bound, tracking mixed global cues, while optimism around better-than-expected corporate earnings and any progress in India–US trade talks could provide upside support.

According to Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments, the market direction will depend on upcoming domestic inflation data, FII flows, and developments related to the US government shutdown.

He advised that a buy-on-dips strategy appears prudent, as results from most Nifty 50 companies reported so far have been largely in line with estimates, and continued policy support is expected to support current premium valuations and potentially drive earnings upgrades.

Here are 10 key factors to watch this week:

Corporate Earnings

This is the final week for the September 2025 quarter earnings season, ending on November 14. More than 2,500 companies will be releasing their earnings scorecar,d including eight Nifty 50 names - Oil and Natural Gas Corporation, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, Asian Paints, Tata Steel, Eicher Motors, Hero MotoCorp, and Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles.

Among others, LG Electronics India, Vodafone Idea, Ather Energy, WeWork India Management, Brainbees Solutions, Emami, Gujarat Gas, Jindal Stainless, Kalpataru, Baazar Style Retail, Awfis Space Solutions, Bharat Forge, Biocon, Bosch, Hindustan Copper, Rail Vikas Nigam, Tata Power, Torrent Power, Trualt Bioenergy, Zaggle Prepaid Ocean Services, Afcons Infrastructure, Ashok Leyland, Aditya Infotech, General Insurance Corporation of India, Hindustan Aeronautics, Honasa Consumer, Indraprastha Gas, Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corporation, Lemon Tree Hotels, P N Gadgil Jewellers, Prestige Estates Projects, SpiceJet, Travel Food Services, Alkem Laboratories, Apollo Tyres, Bharat Dynamics, Dilip Buildcon, Jubilant FoodWork, Muthoot Finance, Voltas, Ashoka Buildcon, Engineers India, Glenmark Pharmaceuticals, Marico, and Oil India will also announce their quarterly earnings this week.

Global Economic Data

There would be limited economic data available from the U.S. due to the ongoing shutdown. The inflation, weekly initial jobless claims, retail sales, and PPI numbers were scheduled for announcement, but now seem to be delayed due to the shutdown.

The market will focus on the scheduled speeches by FOMC officials, which, along with economic data, are crucial for shaping expectations for the Fed’s next move.

Apart from US economic data and shutdown, China's monthly vehicle sales, industrial production, retail sales, and unemployment rate numbers will be watched.

Domestic Economic Data

Back home, the market participants will focus on the retail inflation and WPI inflation numbers due on November 12 and 14, respectively. According to economists, CPI inflation is expected to decline further to below 1 percent in October against 1.54 percent seen in September, which is one of the important factors for the interest rate decision by the RBI MPC.

Further, bank long and deposit growth for the fortnight ended October 31, and foreign exchange reserves for the week ended November 7, along with balance of trade data for October, will be released on November 14.

India-US Trade Progress

The market will keep a close watch on updates regarding the progress of the India–US trade deal, as experts believe that the finalisation of this deal is one of the key factors that could drive the market toward a new record high.

Last Friday, US President Donald Trump said that trade deal talks with India are going well and noted that India has largely stopped buying oil from Russia.

FII Flow

The focus will also be on the mood at FIIs' desks, as there has been a slowdown in their outflow for the last few weeks. Foreign institutional investors have net sold Rs 1,633 crore worth of shares in the truncated week gone by; however, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) provided strong support to the market as their net buying for the week was Rs 16,678 crore, fully compensating the FII outflow.

Meanwhile, the Indian rupee closed the volatile week at 88.63 against the US dollar, strengthening just by 0.1 percent over the previous week, while the US dollar index could not sustain above the 100 mark tested during the week, closing 0.16 percent down at 99.556.

IPO

The mood at the primary market remains strong as investors will see seven new public issues for subscription. The total fundraising by them was more than Rs 11,000 crore in the current week.

Online education platform PhysicsWallah and solar panels and cell maker Emmvee Photovoltaic Power will launch their Rs 3,480 crore and Rs 2,900 crore IPOs, respectively. on November 11, followed by auto parts maker Tenneco Clean Air India's Rs 3,600 crore public issue on November 12.

This follows solar invertor and batteries maker Fujiyama Power Systems' Rs 828-crore IPO on November 13, and software-as-a-service (SaaS) company Capillary Technologies India's initial share sale on November 14.

SMEs - Workmates Core2Cloud Solution, and Mahamaya Lifesciences will open their IPOs worth around Rs 70 crore each on November 11.

Fintech company Pine Labs' initial share sale will remain open for subscription till November 11, while from the SME segment, Finbud Financial Services will close its IPO on November 10, followed by Shining Tools, and Curis Lifesciences on November 11.

On the listing front, eyewear maker Lenskart Solutions will make its market debut on November 10, followed by strong broking platform Groww's parent Billionbrains Garage Ventures on November 12, and Pine Labs on November 14. In the SME section, Shreeji Global FMCG will be the first, listing on November 12, followed by Finbud Financial Services on November 13, Curis Lifesciences, and Shining Tools on November 14.

Technical View

Technical and momentum indicators are signalling bearish sentiment in the market, with the Nifty 50 breaking the low of the previous two weeks. On the weekly charts, the index defended the 10-week EMA and falling resistance trendline (which now turned into support), which is above 25,300. Hence, if the index breaks this level this week, the selling pressure can drive the index toward the psychological 25,000 mark; however, holding the index above 25,300 can open the door for a gradual upmove toward 25,800 and then 26,000 levels, experts said.

F&O Cues

The weekly options data indicated that the Nifty 50 is likely to trade in the broad range of 25,000-26,000, while the immediate range could be the 25,300-25,700 zone.

The maximum Call open interest was placed at the 26,000 strike, followed by the 25,700 and 25,600 strikes, with the maximum Call writing at the 25,500, 25,400, and 26,000 strikes, while the 25,300 strike holds the maximum Put open interest, followed by the 25,000 and 25,400 strikes, with the maximum Put writing at the 25,300, 25,400 and 25,350 strikes.

India VIX

The India Volatility Index, which is also known as the fear gauge, has gradually been rising and closing above the short-term moving averages during the last week, signalling some caution for bulls. The VIX closed at 12.56, up 3.33 percent, while the closing and sustaining above the 13 zone can bring some discomfort for bulls.

Corporate Action

Here are key corporate actions taking place in the coming week:

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