Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical Research and Derivatives at SBI Securities sees rising bearish pressure in the market. “The 200-day EMA zone at 24,400–24,350 will serve as a critical support area. A decisive break below 24,350 could open the doors for a slide toward 24,000,” he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.
Among stocks, L&T appears well positioned to extend its rally given the breakout and improving technical structure.
Ashok Leyland, which has been one of the stronger names within the Auto Index, continues to trade above all key moving averages, underlining its strong bullish structure. “Technical indicators suggest there is still room for further upside before conditions turn overbought, though the stock has already seen a sharp up-move, he said.
Will the Nifty 50 easily break the 24,400–24,300 zone (August low) in the coming week, and then stage a strong rebound from that level?
The Nifty benchmark index saw a sharp fall of 2.65 percent last week, wiping out over 60 percent of the gains accumulated in the prior three weeks. The decline was swift, with the index shedding nearly 800 points in just six trading sessions. This marks its longest losing streak since March 2025, a strong sign of rising bearish pressure across the market.
The biggest drag came from the Nifty IT index, which plunged almost 8 percent during the week after the US President Donald Trump imposed a steep $100,000 fee on new H-1B visa applications. To add to the pressure, Trump further announced a 100 percent tariff on pharmaceutical imports on Friday, dampening prospects for export-driven sectors like pharma.
On the technical front, Nifty has broken below key short-term moving averages — the 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day EMAs — all of which have now turned downward, signalling weakness in trend structure. The daily RSI has also slipped beneath its rising channel and moved below the 40 level, confirming weakening momentum and hinting at the possibility of more downside.
Looking ahead, the 200-day EMA zone at 24,400–24,350 will serve as a critical support area. A decisive break below 24,350 could open the doors for a slide toward 24,000. On the higher side, resistance is now seen at the 24,850–24,900 zone, which will be crucial for any recovery attempt.
Do you see the Bank Nifty taking support around the 54,000 level next week and rebounding, or is the selling pressure likely to continue towards the September lows?
The Bank Nifty index faced selling pressure last week, slipping nearly 2 percent and closing below the 54,400 level. From its recent swing high of 55,835, the index has fallen by more than 1,400 points over just seven sessions, highlighting a sharp pullback in banking counters.
On the weekly chart, a large bearish candle has emerged, signalling firm downside momentum and a negative shift in short-term sentiment. From a technical perspective, the index has broken below its 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day EMAs, all of which have turned downward, indicating weakness in the trend structure.
The daily RSI is also edging close to the 40 level while maintaining a downward slope, suggesting fading momentum. This raises the risk that the index could struggle to stabilize unless market sentiment improves. Overall, the setup warrants caution in banking stocks.
In terms of key levels, the 200-day EMA zone placed around 53,800–53,700 will serve as an important support. A decisive break below 53,700 may accelerate the decline toward the 53,000 mark. On the other hand, immediate resistance is now seen near the 54,700–54,800 zone, which will act as a major hurdle for any rebound attempts.
Do you expect L&T to surpass the Rs 4,000 mark in October, given the recent trendline breakout?
Larsen & Toubro (LT) had been struggling to clear the stiff resistance zone of Rs 3,700–3,710 since early June. However, the recent breakout, backed by strong volumes, marks a decisive move above this hurdle and signals a shift in trend. The stock is now trading comfortably above all key moving averages, reflecting a robust bullish setup.
Momentum indicators further support the case for sustained upside. Bollinger Bands are expanding with price action near the upper band, suggesting strong follow-through buying. RSI has crossed 60, indicating improving bullish sentiment while still leaving room before overbought levels. Rising ADX also highlights strengthening trend momentum.
Given this breakout and improving technical structure, L&T appears well positioned to extend its rally. As long as it sustains above the breakout zone, the stock has a strong probability of surpassing the Rs 4,000 mark in October.
Do you anticipate further consolidation in Tata Motors over the coming weeks, as it continues to hover around the 100- and 200-week EMAs, before entering a new leg of upmove?
Tata Motors has been struggling to sustain momentum despite the broader auto sector’s strong performance. The stock continues to hover around its 100- and 200-day exponential moving averages (DEMA), suggesting indecision and a lack of strong trend direction. Importantly, the 200 DEMA zone around Rs 720–725 has acted as a stiff resistance in recent attempts, triggering selling pressure whenever the price approached that level. On the downside, the stock has seen repeated support around the Rs 625–635 region, keeping it in a broader consolidation range.
Momentum indicators also reflect weakness. The RSI is placed marginally above 40, pointing to fading bullish strength, while ADX indicates a lack of strong trend. The price has been hugging the lower band of the Bollinger bands, hinting at extended consolidation with a downside bias. Unless the stock manages a sustained breakout above the 200 DEMA, the view remains sideways to negative in the coming weeks, with risk of drift toward lower supports.
Has Ashok Leyland already become overbought, or is there still room for further upside?
Ashok Leyland has been one of the stronger names within the Auto Index, outperforming the Nifty in recent weeks. Despite weakness in the broader market, the stock has held firm and continues to trade above all key moving averages (20-, 50-, 100- and 200-day EMAs), underlining its strong bullish structure.
On the momentum front, price action has been hugging the upper Bollinger Band, which typically signals sustained buying interest during trending phases. RSI remains comfortably above 60, indicating healthy momentum but not yet in the overbought zone. Additionally, the rising ADX line confirms improving trend strength, adding conviction to the ongoing rally.
Therefore, while the stock has already seen a sharp up-move, technical indicators suggest there is still room for further upside before conditions turn overbought. A move toward the Rs 151 zone in the near term looks likely, provided support at Rs 137 holds.
Which two stocks would you consider buying during the current market correction for potential gains in the coming week?
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation
HPCL has been showing strong bullish momentum on the daily chart and it is strongly outperforming the frontline indices. Price action indicates a sustained breakout above key moving averages, with the stock now trading well above its 20-day EMA (Rs 408), 50-day EMA (Rs 405), 100-day EMA (Rs 402), and 200-day EMA (Rs 391). This alignment of shorter-term EMAs above the longer-term ones confirms a strong bullish structure. The recent rally has also seen the stock touch the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, signalling strong buying interest, though a minor consolidation near current levels cannot be ruled out, before the stock starts moving up higher again.
Momentum indicators are supportive of the uptrend. RSI is placed around 67, suggesting further room for upside. Additionally, strong price-volume action reinforces positive sentiment. Hence, we recommend accumulating the stock in the zone of Rs 423-419 with a stop-loss of Rs 408. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of Rs 454 in the short term.
Nippon Life India Asset Management
NAM-INDIA has displayed impressive resilience in recent weeks, taking support twice around its 50-day EMA and gradually moving higher thereafter. This steady climb highlights sustained accumulation at lower levels. The strength is further validated by the rising ratio line of NAM-INDIA against the Nifty Capital Market Index, which underlines the stock’s strong relative outperformance within the sector.
On the daily chart, the stock is trading above all key moving averages, signalling a firm bullish setup. The price is also moving closer to the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, indicating continued buying momentum. RSI is placed well above 60, suggesting strength, while the ADX line is trending higher, confirming that the uptrend is gaining traction.
With price action and indicators aligned, the outlook remains bullish. Hence, we recommend accumulating the stock in the zone of Rs 860-850 with a stop-loss of Rs 825. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of Rs 920 in the short term.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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