Monsoon cheer for northwest, central India; east and northeast face rain deficit

Monsoon is bringing cheer to farm economy

After a dry spell in mid-June, rainfall activity picked up in the last week of the month, bringing India’s cumulative monsoon coverage to 9 percent above the 50-year average, IMD data shows.

The monsoon has performed well in northwest and central India but eastern and northeastern parts of the country are rain deficit.

Northwest gets soaked

In the northwest, nine of the 10 states received normal or above-normal rainfall.

Rajasthan, known for its coarse cereal production, got 128 percent above-average rainfall. Uttar Pradesh received 11 percent more rain that the season’s average, while Punjab exceeded the long-period average by 28 percent.

Delhi, however, was an outlier with a 36 percent deficit in the first month of the monsoon season.

In Central India, six of the seven states recorded normal or above-normal rainfall. Only Chhattisgarh, a major rice-growing that contributes 7 percent to the national output, experienced a 20 percent deficit as of June 30.

Waiting for rain 

East and northeast regions have had a mixed start to the monsoon season. Five of the 11 states recorded below-normal rainl. Arunachal Pradesh and Meghalaya saw deficits of 40 percent and 46 percent, respectively.

Bihar, a key producer of rice and maize and a state heading for elections later this year, reported a 36 percent shortfall.

Despite some deficits, southern states such as Andhra Pradesh and Telangana may weather the shortfall due to high reservoir levels. Andhra's reservoirs were 78 percent above the 10-year average, and Telangana’s storage was 47 percent above normal.

Reservoir levels in the western region were 63.5 percent above average and those in central India held 17.7 percent more water than usual as of June 19.

Improved Rainfall Spurs Crop Sowing

The monsoon’s resurgence is reflected in kharif crop sowing, which increased by 11 percent year-on-year across India. Gains were seen in rice, pulses, and Shree Anna (coarse cereals).

“As of 27 June, area covered under kharif crops is ~24 percent of normal area sown (and up 11.3 percent y/y). Crop-wise, sowing in pulses is at 16.3 percent, coarse cereals at 23.1 percent, and cotton at 42 percent. The pattern reflects rainfall received in key producer states like Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Rajasthan,” said Aastha Gudwani, India Chief Economist, Barclays.