Joko Widodo sets out to East Asia, seeking support for inviting Vladimir Putin to G20 summit

A file photo of Indonesian President Joko Widodo

Indonesian President Joko Widodo began a three-nation East Asia visit July 26 to lay the groundwork for the Group of 20 summit in November that he will host amid concerns that sharp differences among members over Ukraine may disrupt the meeting. This sharp division over Ukraine among G20 finance ministers was reflected at their Bali meeting earlier this month. They did not issue a joint communique at the end of their meeting.

Indonesia’s presidency of the group started in December and hosting a successful G20 summit will burnish Widodo’s image as he seeks a fresh mandate in February 2024. If it ends in a fiasco, it can adversely affect his reputation as a leader.

Widodo’s visit to China, South Korea and Japan also has a strong economic plank and he will try to strengthen trade and investment partnership with the three countries during his meetings with the top leadership there. He is also scheduled to engage with top businessmen of South Korea and Japan.

The three countries are G20 members and the Indonesian President will make a strong case for inviting Russian President Vladimir Putin for the summit.

Ensuring success

Since the United States and European countries are campaigning for a G20 summit without Putin, the Indonesian President is trying to convince members that success can only be ensured by the participation of all G20 countries. Widodo will try to enlist support for his decision to invite Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for the November summit. Although Ukraine is not a member of the G20, the Indonesian President is of the view Zelenskyy will be able to cancel out the opposition that western countries have against the Russian President’s participation.

Widodo will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping, his South Korean counterpart Yoon Suk-yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to discuss bilateral, regional and global developments.

The Indonesian President will be the first foreign leader that Xi will host since the February Winter Olympics in Beijing. China is Indonesia’s largest trade partner and their bilateral trade is worth $110 billion. China also invested $3.4 billion in Indonesia last year.

But China’s aggressive rise has been a source of concern for Jakarta and for other countries in the region. Relations between the two have often been tense in the wake of the Chinese navy’s intrusion into waters close to Indonesian territory. However, engagement at the highest level has helped to lower temperatures and push forward economic engagement between the two countries. Indonesia depends on China for some big infrastructure projects which Widodo will be averse to jeopardise.

Widodo will engage with South Korea’s new President and interact with the business community of the country. Trade between the two sides is worth $18.4 billion and Seoul also invested $1.64 billion in Indonesia last year.

Kishida and Widodo met in April when the Japanese Prime Minister visited Jakarta and had discussed areas of mutual interest, including the situation in Ukraine. Japan is an important economic partner of Indonesia and the two countries have a trade worth $32 billion. Japanese investment in Indonesia last year was over $2.26 billion.

Though attempts to strengthen economic partnerships with the East Asian countries will be an important agenda for the Indonesian President, the war in Ukraine and its fallout on the G20 remains a major worry for him. Since the war started in February, the US and its western allies have imposed crippling sanctions on Russia. Moscow has reduced gas supply to Europe.

The increase in prices of energy and other essential items, particularly food grains, because of the war adversely affected countries beyond Europe, especially the poor and developing countries.

The G20 was set up in the wake of the 2008 global economic crisis and had successfully met with the challenges to stabilise the markets. But as a major food and energy crisis looms, there are doubts about whether a divided G20 will be as effective.

Widodo visited Ukraine and Russia and met Zelenskyy and Putin to seek their participation in the G20 Summit in Indonesia. But whether their presence will calm the situation in the G20 and bring the members together to find joint solutions to the impending crisis remains uncertain.