Early monsoon a ‘good sign’, but watch the geospatial spread to assess crop yield, say experts

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An early monsoon is expected to boost India’s agri output this year, experts have said, though cautioning over the geospatial spread of rainfall.

The southwest monsoon hit Kerala on May 24, eight days ahead of the normal date of arrival, which has been the earliest since 2009, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said. The onset on monsoon is usually recorded around June 1 in India.

“It (early monsoon) is good news for crops’ yield. However, monsoon in India has just begun and it is too early to understand the impact on agriculture,” Siraj Hussain, former agriculture secretary told Moneycontrol.

Another expert said early monsoon in India would translate in early sowing by farmers during the upcoming Kharif season.

In India, Kharif crops are sown during the rainy season, between June to September, and are harvested at the end of the monsoon. The main Kharif crops are rice, maize, cotton, sugarcane, groundnut, and various pulses and oilseeds.

“The early monsoon would positively impact crops such as sugarcane and pulses. However, geospatial spread as well as time spread are important. Monsoons have become very erratic. We have seen humongous rain across India and then seen dry spell for 15-20 days. Early monsoon will lead to early sowing. It is too early, as of now, to predict whether it will enhance yields or not,” agriculture economist Deepak Pareek told Moneycontrol.

The IMD had forecasted in April that India could witness above normal monsoon for 2025. Quantitatively, the monsoon rainfall (June-September) over India as a whole is likely to be 105 percent of the long period average (LPA), which is 87 cm, with a model error of +/-5%, the weather department had said during its first estimate for SouthWest Monsoon.

Monsoon is crucial for India's farm sector, which supports the livelihood of about 42.3 percent of the population and contributes 18.2 percent to the country's GDP. In 2024, monsoon had over-extended into October, flooding several regions and damaging crops.

Shares of several FMCG and fertiliser companies had surged earlier in May when IMD had announced earlier onset on monsoons in 2025, hoping for increased rural spending. Early rains could lead to improved demand for daily essentials, beverages and personal care products in rural and urban areas.

According to IMD data, India in 2024 recorded rainfall to the tune of 108 percent of LPA (above normal), 95 percent of LPA (below normal) in 2023, 108 percent of LPA (above normal) in 2022 and 105 percent of LPA (above normal) in 2021.

Monsoon Forecast

On May 26, IMD said southwest monsoon has further advanced into some parts of central Arabian Sea, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and north-eastern states.

The IMD predicted heavy to very heavy rainfall likely to continue over west coast including Kerala, Karnataka, coastal Maharashtra and Goa during next six to seven days. IMD has also issued a ‘red alert’ for Mumbai, and neighbouring districts of Thane, Raigad, and Ratnagiri, warning of “extremely heavy rainfall and thunderstorms with lightning and gusty winds at isolated places.”