Buy Greenply Industries; target of Rs 425: Choice

Choice is bullish on Greenply Industries has recommended buy rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 718 in its research report dated November 06, 2025.

Broker Research

November 11, 2025 / 18:46 IST

buy

26 Aug, 2025 12:21

Volume

Todays L/H

Choice's research report on Greenply Industries

Q2FY26 volume came in at 21.7Mn SQM (+7.4%/+26.9% YoY/QoQ) vs Choice Institutional Equities (CIE) estimate of 20.0Mn. Realisation at INR 242/SQM is down 4.9%/5.1% YoY/QoQ vs. CIE estimate of INR 255/SQM. As a result, revenue grew by 5.4% YoY to INR 5,417Mn (including other related products revenue of INR 170Mn) vs CIE estimate of INR 5,100Mn. EBITDA margin came in at 8.2% (-10bps/+30bps YoY/QoQ), which is higher than CIE estimate of 7.9%. Overall, Plywood segment performance was stronger than expected owing to higher volumes and better margin. The management expects H2FY26 to be better than H1FY26 and is confident of achieving 10% volume growth and EBITDA margin of 10+%.

Outlook

We arrive at a 1-year forward TP of INR 425/share for MTLM. We value MTLM on our PEG ratio-based framework – we assign a PEG ratio of 1x on FY25–28E core EPS growth of 42%, which we believe is a conservative multiple. This valuation framework gives us the flexibility to assign a commensurate valuation multiple based on quantifiable earnings growth. We did a sanity check of our PEG ratio-based TP using implied EV/EBITDA, P/BV and P/E multiple. On our TP of INR 425, FY28E implied EVEBITDA/PB/PE (x) is 15.8x/4.8x/26.0x, which is reasonable in our view.

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