Karnataka Elections: The BJP’s four big weaknesses in its jinxed march to the not-so-simple majority mark of 113

The BJP faces larger structural challenges in Karnataka, the only southern state where it has been able to breach. (File image )

The Bharatiya Janata Party is facing a high level of anti-incumbency and corruption charges in its quest to retain power. No Chief Minister has managed to come back to power in Karnataka since 1985 which portends bad outcomes for CM Basavaraj Bommai. To make matters worse, some senior leaders have left after being denied tickets and joined the Congress.

The BJP faces larger structural challenges in Karnataka, the only southern state where it has been able to breach. It has emerged as the single largest party in three out of the last four elections. However, it has never been able to touch the magical mark of 113 seats (2004: 84, 2008: 110, 2018: 104).

1: Lingayat Tag Hurts

BJP is called the LIBRA (Lingayat plus Brahmin) party in Karnataka. It has not been able to shed its dominance by the Lingayats, which is the most influential community in the state. A quarter of its candidates' hail from the community, higher than the Lingayat population in the state.

Source: CSDS Post Poll, Author’s Calculations

BJP's overdependence on BS Yediyurappa has prevented its outreach amongst other communities. While the BJP in many states in India has become the first choice of OBCs and SC-ST voters, in Karnataka it still lags behind Congress amongst these vote blocs.

2: Lack Of Statewide Presence

Just like the Janata Dal (Secular), the BJP doesn’t enjoy statewide influence. While it has a strong presence in North, Central and Coastal Karnataka, in South Karnataka, especially Old Mysuru region accounting for 51 seats, it is the No:3 player behind Congress and JD(S). In Old Mysuru region, its vote share in 2018 was 19 percent, almost half of its state average of 36 percent.

Source: ECI, Author’s CalculationsNote: Southern Karnataka (Old Mysuru)

In the past five elections, BJP hasn’t been able to extend its influence beyond 170 seats. That means it requires a very high strike rate of 67 percent, and needs to win every 2 out of 3 seats in the rest of Karnataka (113 / 170). There are 77 seats which it has never won in the last three elections.

Source: ECI, Author’s Calculations

3: Failure To Sweep Urban Bengaluru

BJP is the first choice of voters in urban seats across India. However, the party has not been able to hold onto the urban seats of Bengaluru region after 2008 (see table below). With 28 seats, Bengaluru accounts for an eighth of the total seats in the assembly.

This could be attributed to urban apathy, voters not seeing BJP as a party with a difference amid rampant corruption allegations against its government, and lack of progress on the city’s woes like traffic, pollution etc.

4: Dependence On “Borrowed” Leaders

BJP faces a talent issue as well in Karnataka, with one-sixth of its MLAs in the current assembly having won elections previously on the ticket of other parties. A staggering ten ministers in the Bommai government out of a cabinet size of 29 are outsiders (from Congress-JD(S)).

In the initial years, it received a boost from an intake of leaders from Janata Party/ Janata Dal, CM Bommai being the perfect example, he crossing over from JD(U). In 2008, seven MLAs and in 2019, 17 MLAs of Congress-JD(S) jumped sides helping BJP reach the majority mark.

To add to BJP woes, there has been the exit of six high profile leaders over denial of ticket, which further complicates the party's calculations.

Amitabh Tiwari is a former corporate and investment banker-turned political strategist and commentator. Twitter: @politicalbaaba. Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.