Why Oppenheimer will likely be the 2024 Oscars Best Picture winner?

Starring Cillian Murphy in the titular role of Robert Oppenheimer, Christopher Nolan's biographical thriller is the frontrunner for winning Best Picture at the 96th Academy Awards, on March 10, 2024.

Christopher Nolan is 12 films old. And while he commands a phenomenal fan following, most prominently in America and India. The indie film master, despite being nominated for eight Oscars for his previous films such as Memento (2000), Inception (2010), and Dunkirk (2017), hasn’t yet won an Academy Award in any category. His 12th feature is in all likelihood going to change that. Nolan’s Oppenheimer, the biographical thriller based on the life of the “American Promethues” J Robert Oppenheimer (played by Cillian Murphy), aka “the father of the atomic bomb”, which released in theatres on July 12 last year, alongside Greta Gerwig’s Barbie — with Barbenheimer becoming a cultural thing, a cinematic battle — is the frontrunner for winning Best Picture at the 2024 Academy Awards, on March 10 at Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, for a number of reasons.

The 2024 nominees for the Oscars Best Picture are…

The 10 Best Picture nominees are The Holdovers (produced by Mark Johnson); American Fiction (co-produced by Ben LeClair, Nikos Karamigios, Cord Jefferson and Jermaine Johnson); Anatomy of a Fall (by Marie-Ange Luciani and David Thion); Barbie (David Heyman, Margot Robbie, Tom Ackerley and Robbie Brenner); Killers of the Flower Moon (by Dan Friedkin, Bradley Thomas, Martin Scorsese and Daniel Lupi); Maestro (by Bradley Cooper, Steven Spielberg, Fred Berner, Amy Durning and Kristie Macosko Krieger); Past Lives (by David Hinojosa, Christine Vachon and Pamela Koffler); Poor Things (by Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos and Emma Stone); The Zone of Interest (by James Wilson); and, the most likely to win, Oppenheimer (by Emma Thomas, Charles Roven and Christopher Nolan, Producers).

While there has been a section of people who didn’t like the film, calling it a documentary with acting, or Wikipedia-ish chronicling of events, or called it “a History Channel movie with fancy editing” like Richard Brody writing in The New Yorker, there are standout moments in the film, including the victory speech scene and the Nolanesque outwardly projection of Oppenheimer’s mental/emotional condition and visualisation of the horrors he envisaged.

But having said that, the insane popularity of the film, the Box Office collections (USD $95.38) and a majority of the world loving the film, from critics to award ceremonies, makes Oppenheimer a clear favourite this Oscars season. The most critically acclaimed movie of Nolan’s career is also the most accessible of his films, earning a staggering 13 Oscar nominations in many of the major categories, including Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Cinematography, Best Original Score, and Best Picture.

While the Oscars voting is a confidential process, so there can always be surprises, besides other strong contenders in the running, Oppenheimer's performance throughout award season and its ability to resonate with both critics and audiences position it well to win Best Picture.

Here’s why Oppenheimer has a strong chance of winning:

·         Award season domination: It is nominated in 13 Oscar categories. And it has won major awards like the Golden Globe Awards, BAFTA Awards, Producers Guild (PGA), Directors Guild (DGA), and Screen Actors Guild (SAG), Critics’ Choice awards and AFI (American Film Institute) Movie of the Year, among many others, is a powerful indicator. Historically, only one film (Apollo 13) out of 10 achieving this feat hasn't won Best Picture. These awards recognise aspects crucial for Best Picture consideration – filmmaking, production, and acting – suggesting widespread industry support for Oppenheimer.

·         Critical acclaim and popularity: Positive reviews from critics and strong box office performance (high ticket sales) indicate Oppenheimer resonates with both experts and audiences. The Academy often seeks films that achieve this balance.

·         Christopher Nolan’s reputation: Director Nolan has a history of critical and commercial success. His association with the film adds prestige and increases its potential for recognition.

·         Technical achievements: News about groundbreaking practical effects without excessive CGI use could further elevate the film’s technical prowess.

·         Preferential voting system: This system can benefit a film like Oppenheimer. Even if it’s not everyone’s absolute favourite, voters who rank it highly on their ballots can contribute to its overall score and a strong performance across the board can lead to victory.

ALSO READ: How the Oscars Best Picture is selected: the criteria, ranking system and timeline

Does Oppenheimer meet the Oscars’ new DE&I Standards criteria?

The Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DE&I) Standards was implemented recently, starting with the 96th Academy Awards this year. To meet that, a film needs to fulfill at least two out of four benchmarks focusing on representation (of marginalised race and gender sections) on screen, creative leadership, industry access, and audience development.

According to Reddit post on Nolan’s film at the 2024 Oscars, despite Oppenheimer’s predominantly white cast, there could still be a way to gain eligibility to win the Best Picture Award if “it satisfies Standard B due to its executive producer, Thomas Hayslip, and costume designer, Ellen Mirojnick, being Asian and female, respectively, and therefore members of ‘underrepresented groups’. Oppenheimer could also satisfy Standard D due to Universal Pictures, the film's distribution company, having a President of Domestic Marketing, Dwight Caines, who is African American and a President of Distribution, Veronika Kwan Vandenberg, who is a woman.”