BJP overcomes anti-incumbency in coastal Karnataka

The BJP's sweep across Coastal Karnataka ensured their continued dominance across the region regarding Lok Sabha polls.

Coastal Karnataka has traditionally been a BJP stronghold. Across the last two decades of Lok Sabha elections, the Party has dominated its primary challenger, the Congress party. The results from this time have seen the BJP continue its dominance.

The [arty has won all three seats in the coastal belt: Uttara Kannada, Udupi-Chikkamagalur and Dakshina Kannada. The BJP won three seats with very comfortable margins. Uttara Kannada was won with a margin of over 3 lakh votes. Udupi-Chikkamaglur's margin was over 2.5 lakh, and Dakshina Kannada's margin was around 1.5 lakh. Despite these comfortable victories, anti-incumbency was a significant threat. The sitting MPs in all the coastal seats were dropped.

During the 2023 Assembly Elections, the Congress did relatively well in Uttara Kannada. The Party won 5 of the 8 assembly seats in the Uttara Kannada Lok Sabha constituency. Therefore, coming into the Lok Sabha polls, the Congress had the momentum on the ground. Apart from an energized Congress party, the BJP also had to deal with the issue of candidate selection. The sitting MP, Ananth Kumar Hegde, has held the seat since 2004. Before that, he represented the seat between 1996 and 1999.

While some expected Ananth Kumar Hedge to be retained in this election, his comments regarding the constitution have worked against him. In March, Mr Hegde said they would change the constitution if the BJP gets more than 400 seats. Following these controversial remarks, he was denied a ticket, and Vishweshwar Hegde Kageri was fielded instead. The Party held onto the seat despite the decision to drop such a senior leader. Interestingly, out of the three seats, this is where the BJP's victory margin is the largest.

In Udupi-Chikkamagalur and Dakshina Kannada, the decision to drop the sitting MPs came down to anti-incumbency. Naleen Kumar Kateel was the sitting MP from Dakshina Kannada. He had won in 2009. Despite winning 3 consecutive Lok Sabha polls, unhappiness had been brewing on the ground. Backward caste groups like the Billavas were unhappy with his leadership. This was evident in 2022, following the murder of Hindu Yuva Sena worker Praveen Nettaru. Local Bajrang Dal and Hindu Yuva Sena cadres blocked the roads and prevented Mr Kateel from visiting Nettaru’s family. The protests clearly indicated the growing dissatisfaction amongst local karyakartas against Mr Kateel.

The BJP’s decision to drop Kateel was not a surprise. His unpopularity, particularly amongst backward caste groups, could have worked against the BJP. The BJP eventually fielded a newcomer, Captain Brijesh Chowta, who had done significant work at the grassroots across Dakshina Kannada. The Congress fielded Padmaraj Poojari, a Billava leader. By fielding a Billava candidate, the Congress hoped it could pull some of the unhappy Billava voters from the BJP. However, on the ground, the BJP's decision to change the candidate has worked in its favour. Despite some unhappiness amongst backwards caste groups, the BJP managed to hold on to Dakshina Kannada.

In Udupi-Chikkamaglur, the sitting MP was Shobha Karandlaje.  She had held this seat since 2014. Karandlaje is a senior Karnataka BJP leader and has been involved with the Party's Lok Sabha campaigns since 2014. In 2018, she was one of the prominent faces of the Party's Jana Suraksha Yatra.

The Yatra ultimately helped the BJP sweep the 2018 Assembly Elections and the 2019 Lok Sabha elections from Coastal Karnataka. Despite her close involvement with the Party’s campaign, there was significant unhappiness with her leadership amongst the electorate. Particularly telling was the ‘Go Back’ campaign organized by local BJP workers against her leadership. Many locals saw her as an outsider and demanded the ticket be given to a local candidate.

Ultimately, the BJP yielded to these demands and gave the ticket to Kota Srinivas Poojary. Poojary is a senior backward caste leader from the Udupi region. He was also a senior minister in Baswaraj Bommai’s state cabinet. The Congress decided to field Jayaprakash Hegde, a veteran politician who was elected MLA from Bramhavar between 1994 and 2008. In 2012, when by-elections were held for the Udupi-Chikamagalur seat, Mr Hegde defeated the BJP candidate. Therefore, many expected a close contest with both sides fielding experienced local leaders. However, the BJP managed to hold onto this seat reasonably comfortably.

The BJP's sweep across Coastal Karnataka ensured their continued dominance across the region regarding Lok Sabha polls. Going into the elections, the BJP was on a sticky wicket, with their sitting MPs facing strong anti-incumbency. The Party's success comes from good candidate selection and a robust organizational network. The Congress will have serious questions to answer. Despite the BJP's vulnerabilities, Congress candidates failed to put up a tough fight. The lack of strong leadership within the Congress ranks across Coastal Karnataka is equally concerning. Congress's leadership must undergo a significant overhaul across the coastal belt. Empowering young leaders and working in the grassroots will be critical for the Congress. At the moment, with its strong organizational network and local leadership, the BJP is far ahead of the Congress across Coastal Karnataka.