Lok Sabha polls: Anxieties yes, can that be enough to upset the electoral calculations of BJP?

Voting decision of people depends on what they consider an achievement of the government and unease about price rise and unemployment may not bear an effect.

The recent pre-poll survey conducted by Lokniti program of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) among ten thousand voters selected randomly from the electoral rolls spread across 19 states suggest, when elections are knocking the door, there are visible signs of unease and anxiety amongst the Indian voters. But that may not be enough to upset the electoral calculation of the Bharatiya Janata Party for 2024 Lok Sabha elections, though the target of 370 may look like a distant dream.

There are a few explanations for why at this moment, despite unease among the voters, the BJP may still be holding strong for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. There are other achievements of the BJP government which people give more credit to, compared to the issues of unemployment and increasing prices. People are likely to vote on the basis of what they consider as achievement of the government and not on their unease about price rise and unemployment. The BJP seems to have a huge advantage over its rivals on the issue of leadership, Narendra Modi being far ahead in popularity rating compared to party leaders. What seems to trump the voting choice are the issues of leadership and the issue of nationalism, national pride and Hindutva.

Concerns on Unemployment

Findings of the survey indicate voter’s anxiety about increasing unemployment. Nearly 62 percent of voters believed that finding a job has become more difficult now compared to the past. This is being experienced by people both in villages, towns and cities. Large number of people are also feeling the pinch of rising prices. Nearly 55 percent of people mentioned that prices have increased during last five years while another 19 percent believed that it has declined. There are others who did not express any opinion on this. Though in different proportions, both rich and poor are feeling the pinch of price rise. The situation with regard to unemployment and price rise has not changed during the last few years, the anxieties have persisted.

BJP’s Achievements

What works in favour of the BJP is central governments record on developmental work which has been endorsed by large number of people. Abrogation of Article 370 is seen as an important step of the Modi government which is endorsed by 50 percent voters in varying degrees. That does not mean that rest others are critical of governments decision of abrogation of Article 370, only 8 percent expressed their reservation about this issue while others either were not aware of this issue or did not express their opinion on this. Even though G20 summit was held in Delhi, but as many as 37 percent are aware of the summit and a large number of them associated it with positive achievement of the government.

In the survey 30 percent people believed that G20 has showcased Indian’s growing power in the world while another 39 percent believed that G20 will strengthen India’s foreign policy and foreign trade. Only 12 percent people were critical of the G20 event terming it as a waste of money.

Survey findings has also indicated a sizeable number of the people in support for government’s move towards having a uniform civil code in India. Let’s not even talk about the support for the Hindutva agenda of the government which includes support for construction of Ram Mandir and assertion of Hindu identity in various forms. The survey indicates of massive support amongst Indians on these issues which goes to the advantage of the BJP. All these achievements which may not deliver concrete and material benefits to the people, but gives them a sense of national pride which triumphs people anxieties about unemployment and price rise.

The Narendra Modi Factor

Let’s not forget, what gives BJP a decisive advantage over the Congress or other opposition parties (INDIA alliance) few weeks before election, is the image of Narendra Modi as an honest and strong Prime Minister who has not only given the country a clean and honest government, but lifted India’s image in the world, made India stronger in the world. There is hardly any leader amongst all opposition parties who could match Narendra Modi’s popularity. Modi has attacked the opposition on the issue of corruption which appeals to large number of Indian voters. The INDIA alliance partners are also blaming Narendra Modi to be involved in corruption, raising the issue of BJP having received large sum of money through electoral bonds, but this has hardly dented prime minister Modi’s image, though a sizeable number of voters have started raising questions about the image of the party. But what finally seems to be pulling votes for the BJP in a big way is not the image of the party, but its leadership, the Narendra Modi factor.

(Sanjay Kumar is a Professor at Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS). He is also a Political Analyst. X id: @SanjayCSDS.)

Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.