Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Why Wayanad will be a tightrope walk, and not a cakewalk, for Rahul this time

A file photo of Congress leader Rahul Gandhi.

Senior Congress leader Rahul Gandhi is set to file his nomination papers for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections from the Wayanad seat in Kerala on April 3. To kickstart his election campaign, he will lead a massive roadshow in Kalpetta town, with thousands of UDF workers expected to participate from the seven Assembly constituencies under the Wayanad Lok Sabha seat. Kerala's 20 Lok Sabha constituencies are scheduled to hold elections on April 26.

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Gandhi's Roadshow Itinerary

The roadshow will start at 11 am from the new Municipal bus stand premises, following Gandhi's arrival at Thalakkal ground via helicopter at 10 am. AICC general secretaries Priyanka Gandhi and KC Venugopal, Kerala’s Leader of the Opposition VD Satheesan, KPCC acting president MM Hassan, senior party leader Ramesh Chennithala, and other state leaders will accompany Gandhi.

After the roadshow, the Congress leader will submit his nomination papers to the District Collector and district election officer Renu Raj at 12 pm. The event, led by Gandhi, marks the start of an extensive campaign covering 20 constituencies across Kerala, signifying its political significance and aiming to garner support for the upcoming elections.

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BJP's Bold Move in Wayanad

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has nominated its state chief, K Surendran, as its candidate for the prestigious Wayanad constituency, pitting him against Gandhi. This move reflects the saffron party's determination to challenge the long-standing bipolar politics in the state, which has been historically dominated by the Congress-led UDF and the CPI(M)-led LDF alliances.

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CPI's Nomination Strategy

With the surprise nomination of Surendran in Wayanad, a historically Congress stronghold, the BJP aims to deliver a strong response to its adversaries by presenting a formidable contender against Gandhi. Meanwhile, the CPI has put forward Annie Raja, representing the ruling Left in the constituency. Raja will submit her nomination papers at 10 am following a roadshow. The roadshow is scheduled to start at 9 am from the Kalpetta Service Cooperative Bank premises.

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Surendran, known as the prominent figure leading the BJP's vigorous protests against the admission of young women into Sabarimala several years ago, has held the position of BJP state unit president since 2020.

Gandhi's Wayanad Win: Electoral Strategy Shift

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Gandhi's win in the Wayanad constituency played a crucial role in his electoral strategy, particularly after losing the traditional Congress stronghold of Amethi in Uttar Pradesh to BJP's Smriti Irani. Winning Wayanad ensured his presence in Parliament despite the setback in Amethi. Historically, Wayanad has been a Congress bastion, similar to Rae Bareli and Amethi in Uttar Pradesh. In the 2019 election, Gandhi secured an impressive 64.8 percent of the total vote share, indicating strong support for the Congress in the region.

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Gandhi's Wayanad Vision vs Local Priorities

Gandhi's vision for Wayanad included a wide range of developmental initiatives, including modernising infrastructure such as railways, airstrips, and roads, as well as addressing agricultural challenges and promoting tourism-related projects. However, reports suggest that the residents of Wayanad prioritise having a Member of Parliament (MP) who possesses a profound understanding of the region's needs and can actively engage with them to address their issues. Within certain segments, there is a growing sentiment that a representative deeply rooted in the local community would be more practical in comprehending and tackling the unique challenges faced by the constituency.

Gandhi's Vision: Realism vs Perception

Political analysts say that the criticism regarding Gandhi's focus on Wayanad being seen as "emotional" and lacking in realism points to a potential gap between his priorities and the pressing issues faced by his constituency. While Gandhi has expressed a vision for Wayanad that includes developmental initiatives, people feel that these goals may not directly address the immediate challenges related to livelihood and basic infrastructure in the region. One possible explanation for this perceived disconnect could be a lack of clear communication from Gandhi regarding how his broader goals align with the specific needs of Wayanad.

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Wayanad: A Mosaic of Diversity

Wayanad's economy is primarily driven by agriculture, including plantations, and tourism. Situated at the trijunction of Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka, the region boasts linguistic diversity, with many languages spoken in its major towns beyond Malayalam. Religious diversity is also evident, with Hinduism, Islam, Christianity, and Jainism coexisting, reflecting the multicultural fabric of the area.

Wayanad is a landlocked and hilly district with diverse terrain, including elevations ranging from 354 feet to a maximum of 7,350 feet above sea level. The area is known for its lush foliage, characterised by extensive forests and diverse wildlife. However, despite its natural beauty, the region faces challenges, particularly for the younger generations of hill farmers.

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One main challenge is the declining state of agriculture, which has led many young farmers to seek alternative livelihoods. As a result, there has been a significant migration of young people from rural areas of Wayanad to urban centres in search of better economic opportunities.

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Gandhi's Candidacy: Shifting Dynamics

In the context of Gandhi's candidacy from Wayanad, experts are of the view that his victory in 2019 was partly due to the novelty of his candidacy and the support gained from various segments of the population. However, with time, this novelty may have diminished, and Gandhi may face a more challenging electoral landscape in the upcoming elections. If successful, the margin of his victory may be narrower compared to the previous election, reflecting shifting dynamics and concerns within the constituency.