Exit Poll 2025 updates: Thumping victory likely as NDA to secure 140-150 seats in Bihar, predicts News18

The total tally of Congress is likely to stand in the range of 15-20 seats in the Bihar elections 2025, similar to what it had won in the previous election. Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj could win 0-5 seats. Left parties could win a total of 10-20 seats.

Mahagathbandhan is projected to win 85-95 seats, which will be way below the 110 it had secured in the 2020 elections. Out of this, RJD is set to be the largest opposition party with 50-60 seats, far less than the 75 seats it had mopped up in 2020.

Bharatiya Janata Party is likely to win to win a total of 55-65 seats in the Bihar 2025 elections, a slight fall from its tally in 2020 polls. NDA allies LJP, HAMS and RLM are expected to secure enough seats to give the alliance a strong majority.

The ruling NDA regime is set to return to power after the alliance is predicted to win 140-150 seats in the two-phase Bihar Assembly elections. The ruling Nitish Kumar-led alliance is likely to better its tally from 2020 elections, with JDU emerging as the single largest party with 60-70 seats. In the previous election, JDU had won 43 seats.

Constituency – Projected winner (party) 

Hilsa - Krishna Murari Sharan (JDU)

Harnaut - Hari Narayan Singh (JDU)

Kumhrar - Sanjay Kumar (BJP)

Maner - Bhai Birendra (RJD)

Jagdishpur - Shribhagwan Singh Khushwaha (JDU)

Brahampur - Shambhunath Yadav (RJD)

The NDA bloc is set to secure a landslide victory in Bihar with 140-150 seats in the Assembly elections, while the Mahagathbandhan will fall short again in its latest bid to win the state elections, winning 85-95 seats, the News18's Mega Exit Poll predicted.

Constituency - Projected winner (party) 

Madhepura - Chandra Shekhar (RJD)

Gaura Bauram - Sujit Kumar (BJP, narrow win)

Darbhanga - Sanjay Saraogi (BJP)

Bahadurpur - Madan Sahni (JDU, narrow win)

Jale - Jibesh Kumar (BJP)

Bhorey (SC) - Sunil Kumar (JDU)

Siwan - Awadh Bihari Choudhary (RJD, narrow win)

Garkha (SC) - Surendra Ram (RJD)

Mahnar - Umesh Singh Kushwaha (JDU)

Hasanpur - Raj Kumar Ray (JDU, narrow win)

Key observations from News18’s Exit Poll for phase 1:

RJD chief Tejashwi Yadav's promise of government job for every Bihar family may have found some resonance in this election. The party had more voters in the age group of 18-35 voters, compared to other parties.

Congress too has seemed to develop a support base among undergraduate and post-graduate voters, compared to less educated electors for other parties.

Key observations from News18's Exit Poll for phase 1:

-BJP has more urban and women voters, compared to JDU which has more rural support. For the opposition parties RJD and Congress, there does not seem to be much difference between urban and rural voters.

-In addition, BJP has a higher vote share among the upper caste (general category). JDU's share is higher among the Extremely Backward Communities, while RJD dominates the other backward caste groups.

Congress is likely to secure 5-10 seats in the first phase of Bihar Assembly elections. The party had contested in 24 seats in the first phase that included some 'friendly battles'. In 2020, the party had fought on 70 seats, winning 19. In the 2025 election, Congress contested on 61 seats, mostly in phase 2.

Rashtriya Janata Dal is set to win 25-35 seats only, which could prove to be a major setback for the Opposition alliance. In the 2020 polls, the party had secured 42 seats in the first phase.

Bharatiya Janata Party is set to win around 20-30 seats. Earlier, the saffron party had secured 32 seats in the 2020 election.

Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar-led JDU is set to make the biggest mark in the first phase. The party is likely to win 35-45 seats out of the 57 it had contested.

The survey revealed that the party is likely benefitting from an NDA vote consolidation. JDU likely regained some of the seats it had lost in 2020 after Chirag Paswan's LJP fought against it.

News18's Mega Exit Polls revealed that the ruling NDA bloc is set to take major lead in the first phase of the election with a likely seat share of 60-70 seats.

The Mahagatbandhan is set follow the ruling alliance closely with a likely seat share of 45-55 seats.

Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj is unlikely to make a mark in the first phase.

Highest-ever voter turnout of 67.14% provisionally recorded at close of polling in second phase of Bihar assembly elections, officials said on November 11.

Soon after the second phase of voting ends on November 11, News18 will spell out the results of its exit poll. The survey has been conducted across 122 Assembly seats, covering 50 percent of the state, with 225 interviews and a total sample size of 27,450 responses across Bihar.

Survey methodology

The survey employed a structure questionnaire to conduct the interviews with translation available in Hindi and access via mobile app. The exit poll was also conducted through a mixed methodology, in which the responses were sought a day after the polling, instead of the usual practice of collecting them soon after voters come out of polling booths. This method is considered more reliable and was used only for the first phase of voting. Moreover, the surveyors had selected 15 booths in each constituency through random sampling.

Bihar witnessed one of the closes political battles in recent history between Nitish Kumar-led NDA and Tejashwi Yadav-led INDIA bloc. Multiple opinion polls have given a slight edge to the ruling alliance, with Yadav emerging as the most popular choice for the post of chief minister. In the previous election, Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Party was the single largest party with 75 seats, with BJP coming close second at 74.

The second and final phase of Bihar Assembly elections is set to conclude, with over 3.7 crore voters to decide the fate of 1,302 candidates, including 12 state cabinet ministers and several top INDIA bloc leaders.

Till 5 pm, a voter turnout of 67.14 percent of was recorded in the final phase, a new high, the Election Commission data showed.

The second phase saw voting held across 122 constituencies, spread across more than 45,300 booths, maximum falling in rural areas.